8074 W Xavier St Plan · Conroe, TX 77303

$144,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured · 288 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition $76/sqft · 47% below area Est $275k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.7

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this Clayton 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offering comfortable and affordable living. The open-concept layout features a bright, inviting living area and a fully equipped kitchen with a large pantry accented by a charming barn-style screen door. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with an ensuite bathroom featuring a stand-alone shower and a relaxing soaking tub. Natural wood finishes paired with modern fixtures create a warm, cozy feel throughout, while the spacious back deck offers the perfect outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Reach out today to schedule your tour!

Key facts

• Stand-alone shower
• Large pantry
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LARGE PANTRY
• BARN-STYLE SCREEN DOOR
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• STAND-ALONE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1106 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,595 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,000
• List price: $144,995
• Delta: -47.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11885 Stratosphere St	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,889 (-2%)	2mo	$259,990	$138	63
11891 Stratosphere St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,810 (-6%)	4mo	$269,990	$149	61
11936 Avian Ave	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,026 (+6%)	1mo	$299,510	$148	61
11746 Airspeed Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (-11%)	1mo	$264,990	$154	57
10638 Altitude Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-16%)	0mo	$264,692	$165	55
10903 Atmosphere Ct	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,086 (+9%)	2mo	$289,990	$139	54
9934 Sterling Place Dr	1.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (-4%)	1mo	$239,000	$130	53
9987 Sterling Place Dr	1.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,973 (+3%)	3mo	$264,900	$134	51
6169 White Oak Leaf Loop	1.35mi	3/2.0	1,761 (-8%)	2mo	$249,000	$141	49
11924 Avian Ave	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,084 (+8%)	0mo	$299,576	$144	45
10693 Altitude Way	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,280 (+19%)	0mo	$315,172	$138	45
11940 Avian Ave	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,084 (+8%)	0mo	$305,229	$146	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-21,375
• Equity at exit: $21,619

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-26,330
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active
• Median asking: $109,995 ($70/sqft)
• Median days on market: 215 d
• This list price: 91% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +104.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1106
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $144,995

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $147	+0% $97	+5% $47	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $42	+0% $97	+5% $152	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $134	base $97	+0.5pp $59	+1.0pp $21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,249
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11085 Pine Acre Trails Blvd Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1382	$1,299	$0.94	6d	1	0.01mi
10594 Rustling Oaks Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	2560	$2,350	$0.92	10d	1	0.09mi
10726 Sunlit St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	157d	1	0.33mi
11014 Inflow Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,460	$0.82	41d	1	0.46mi
11106 Altimeter Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,439	$0.80	19d	1	0.52mi
9922 Sterling Place Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,707	$1.26	21d	1	1.08mi
12340 N Chestnut Hills Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,900	$1.06	126d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $144,995 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $144,995 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $144,995 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $144,995 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $144,995 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $144,995 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $144,995 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $144,995 Active 280 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $144,995 Active 279 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $144,995 Active 278 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $144,995 Active 277 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $144,995 Active 276 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $144,995 Active 275 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $144,995 Active 274 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $144,995 Active 273 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $144,995 Active 272 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $144,995 Active 271 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $144,995 Active 270 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $144,995 Active 269 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $144,995 Active 268 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $144,995 Active 267 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $144,995 Active 266 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $144,995 Active 265 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $144,995 Active 264 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $144,995 Active 263 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $144,995 Active 262 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $144,995 Active 261 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $144,995 Active 260 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $144,995 Active 259 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $144,995 Active 258 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $144,995 Active 257 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $144,995 Active 256 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $144,995 Active 255 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $144,995 Active 254 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $144,995 Active 253 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $144,995 Active 252 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $144,995 Active 251 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $144,995 Active 250 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $144,995 Active 249 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $144,995 Active 248 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $144,995 Active 247 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $144,995 Active 246 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $144,995 Active 245 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $144,995 Active 244 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $144,995 Active 243 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $144,995 Active 242 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $144,995 Active 241 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $144,995 Active 240 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $144,995 Active 239 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $144,995 Active 238 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$1,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$292
• After-tax cash flow: $1,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,600–$28,800 screening

This Clayton 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence is in excellent condition with a modern design and open-concept layout. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding outdoor furniture — Improves curb appeal and creates a welcoming environment ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Patterson El F TX #2,149/4,322 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 High Conroe H S F TX #767/1,632 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-24 Listed $144,995 Zillow