14115 Pennock Ave #303 · Apple Valley, MN 55124

$124,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Condo public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1983 $284/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful move-in ready one bedroom condo! Every room has been remodeled with love. Kitchen includes stainless steal appliances, backsplash and a beautiful floor that continues through the home. Spacious living room with warm colors extends to the eat in dining area. Lots of storage inside and outside. Free washers and dryers on the same floor! Includes 1 car garage and plenty of parking. Won’t last long!

Key facts

• $284 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Alliance Homeowners Association; Monthly association fee of $284 covering hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, parking, professional management, sewer, snow removal and water

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot; 1-car garage
• Security: Security system; Security lights
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Electric fuel
• Home design: Residential attached property; One story
• Construction: Block foundation; Foundation area approx. 700
• Exterior features: Stone and vinyl exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level (approx. 12.10 x 11.7)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall unit cooling; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Balcony; Deck; Security system; Security lights; Main floor full bath; Has basement (no finished basement features specified)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in MN, #379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $112,840 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.97%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-14,038
• Equity at exit: $18,489

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,768
• Equity at exit: $10,721

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55124

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,511 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,460/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$284
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,402

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14191 Pennock Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,400	$1.62	24d	5	0.05mi
14650 Foliage Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$1,864	$1.91	2d	23	1.31mi
6859 152nd St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,565	$1.47	1d	10	1.40mi
15283 Galante Ln Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,868	$2.12	2d	17	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $284 · $3,408/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $124,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    status Active
16. 2026-05-14
    price $135,000
17. 2025-11-13
    listed $139,900 Active
18. 2025-11-08
    historical $139,900
19. 2021-11-02
    soldstatus $127,879
20. 2021-10-27
    soldstatus $127,900 Sold 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Beautiful move-in ready one bedroom condo! Every room has been remodeled with love. Kitchen includes stainless steal appliances, backsplash and a beautiful floor that continues through the home. Spacious living room with warm colors extends to the eat in dining area. Lots of storage inside and outside. Free washers and dryers on the same floor! Includes 1 car garage and plenty of parking. Won’t last long!

21. 2021-09-28
    historical Contingent - Inspection 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Beautiful move-in ready one bedroom condo! Every room has been remodeled with love. Kitchen includes stainless steal appliances, backsplash and a beautiful floor that continues through the home. Spacious living room with warm colors extends to the eat in dining area. Lots of storage inside and outside. Free washers and dryers on the same floor! Includes 1 car garage and plenty of parking. Won’t last long!

22. 2021-09-25
    listed $129,900 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Beautiful move-in ready one bedroom condo! Every room has been remodeled with love. Kitchen includes stainless steal appliances, backsplash and a beautiful floor that continues through the home. Spacious living room with warm colors extends to the eat in dining area. Lots of storage inside and outside. Free washers and dryers on the same floor! Includes 1 car garage and plenty of parking. Won’t last long!

23. 2007-07-23
    historical
24. 2007-03-31
    listed $115,900
25. 2005-05-25
    soldstatus $100,000
26. 2005-05-03
    soldstatus $100,000
27. 2005-04-15
    historical
28. 2004-11-30
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,460 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,460 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$1,460
• − Insurance: −$620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − HOA: −$3,408
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable loss: −$814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$195
• After-tax cash flow: $1,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 55,658
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 55,658
• Household income: $97,727
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.56%
• Current HPI: 227.4734
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+35.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-08 Coming Soon $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $127,879 Public Records
• 2021-10-27 Sold (MLS) $127,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-28 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-25 Listed $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-31 Listed $115,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-03 Sold (MLS) $100,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-30 Listed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,460 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.