Residence Three Plan · French Valley, CA 92596

$575,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,149 sqft · SingleFamily · 159 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story townhome delivers modern flexibility with a first-floor bedroom and full bathroom-perfect for overnight guests, aging parents or anyone who appreciates main-level living. The first floor centers around an inviting Great Room that connects naturally with the dining area and kitchen, creating an ideal space for family gatherings and entertaining. The second floor is host to a tranquil owner's suite featuring luxurious bathroom and walk-in closet, plus three additional bedrooms. A versatile loft provides bonus space for play, study or relaxation.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Kitchen
• Dining area

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $575,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $729,552.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $576k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $461k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $403k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $403k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: French Valley Elementary (880 students, 24% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $78k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $73k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$125k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($507k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $402,919 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.92%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $729,552
• List price: $575,990
• Delta: -21.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36525 Altisma Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,278 (+6%)	3mo	$664,450	$292	83
36573 Altisma Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,278 (+6%)	0mo	$602,000	$264	83
32579 Breton	0.19mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,320 (+8%)	11mo	$700,000	$302	60
32598 Breton Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,320 (+8%)	14mo	$720,000	$310	58
33111 Toledo Bend Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,201 (+2%)	7mo	$665,000	$302	53
36055 Maddalena Rd	0.60mi	5/3.0	1,988 (-8%)	10mo	$828,000	$416	51
36082 Saint Claire Ct	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,201 (+2%)	16mo	$673,000	$306	48
33084 Toledo Bend Ct	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,201 (+2%)	14mo	$685,000	$311	46
32398 Jardin Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,408 (+12%)	13mo	$745,000	$309	43
32124 Beaulieu Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,320 (+8%)	7mo	$655,000	$282	42
32458 Saint Martin St	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (+12%)	17mo	$699,900	$291	37
36859 Rancho Kiel Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-7%)	13mo	$605,000	$303	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $267,204
• Equity at exit: $657,238

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $858,945
• Equity at exit: $1,417,359

Cash invested: $204,275 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $598,000 ($268/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +26.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,826
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$912 /mo · $10,943/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$846
• Net cashflow: $-1,859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,382

Max offer price $460,594

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,355	-5% $-1,607	+0% $-1,859	+5% $-2,111	+10% $-2,363
Rent	-10% $-2,177	-5% $-2,018	+0% $-1,859	+5% $-1,700	+10% $-1,540
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,491	-0.5pp $-1,673	base $-1,859	+0.5pp $-2,048	+1.0pp $-2,240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,388
• Closing costs: $21,887
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36599 Frangipani Dr Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2149	$3,300	$1.54	3d	1	0.08mi
36173 Saint Claire Ct Winchester, CA	6.0	3.5	2905	$6,000	$2.07	1d	1	0.54mi
36173 Saint Claire Ct Winchester, CA	6.0	3.5	2905	$6,000	$2.07	184d	1	0.54mi
33072 Toledo Bend Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2590	$3,600	$1.39	6d	1	0.64mi
31859 Woodbank Way Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2300	$3,695	$1.61	63d	1	0.86mi
31799 Woodbank Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	1862	$3,200	$1.72	23d	1	0.91mi
31799 Woodbank Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	1861	$3,200	$1.72	7d	1	0.91mi
31799 Woodbank Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	1862	$2,999	$1.61	3d	1	0.91mi
37019 Running Springs Rd Murrieta, CA	5.0	2.5	2189	$3,500	$1.60	10d	1	1.00mi
36073 Arras Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2877	$3,450	$1.20	10d	1	1.04mi
36367 Sicily Ln Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	2873	$3,249	$1.13	10d	1	1.06mi
37184 Running Springs Rd Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.0	1991	$3,500	$1.76	129d	1	1.09mi
36264 Capri Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1999	$3,300	$1.65	159d	1	1.12mi
32180 Yosemite St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2660	$3,395	$1.28	63d	1	1.16mi
33056 St. Emilion Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	2792	$3,300	$1.18	10d	1	1.18mi
32561 Cherokee Rose St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2998	$3,595	$1.20	10d	1	1.19mi
32561 Cherokee Rose St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2998	$3,595	$1.20	75d	1	1.19mi
31719 Poppy St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2708	$3,400	$1.26	10d	1	1.20mi
31431 Gironde Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	2069	$3,400	$1.64	37d	1	1.32mi
35222 Azalea Ln Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2784	$3,900	$1.40	119d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 32858 Dulcinea Cir, Winchester CA 92596
• Financial info: List price $600,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence — Plan: Residence ThreeNew construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,149 (living area reported)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active listing — new construction plan (Residence Three)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $575,990 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $575,990 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $575,990 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $575,990 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $575,990 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $575,990 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $575,990 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $575,990 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $575,990 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $575,990 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $575,990 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $575,990 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $575,990 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $575,990 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $575,990 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $575,990 Active 143 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $575,990 Active 142 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $575,990 Active 141 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $575,990 Active 140 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $575,990 Active 139 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $575,990 Active 138 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $575,990 Active 137 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $575,990 Active 136 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $575,990 Active 135 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $575,990 Active 134 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $575,990 Active 133 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $575,990 Active 132 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $575,990 Active 131 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $575,990 Active 130 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $575,990 Active 129 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $575,990 Active 128 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $575,990 Active 127 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $575,990 Active 126 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $575,990 Active 125 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $575,990 Active 124 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $575,990 Active 123 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $575,990 Active 122 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $575,990 Active 121 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $575,990 Active 120 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $575,990 Active 119 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $575,990 Active 118 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $575,990 Active 117 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $575,990 Active 115 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $575,990 Active 114 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $575,990 Active 113 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $575,990 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $575,990 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $575,990 Active 110 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $575,990 Active 109 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $575,990 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,866
• − Property taxes: −$10,943
• − Insurance: −$3,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,868
• − Management: −$3,868
• − Depreciation: −$21,223
• Taxable loss: −$36,066
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,656
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can make the interior look more inviting and modern. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑
• Both Window treatments — Window treatments can improve the home's curb appeal and provide privacy and energy efficiency. ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary French Valley Elementary Middle Bella Vista Middle High Chaparral High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,664,475 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 32858 Dulcinea Cir, Winchester CA 92596
• Financial info: List price $600,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence — Plan: Residence ThreeNew construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,149 (living area reported)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active listing — new construction plan (Residence Three)