2403 Fir Ave · Lubbock, TX 79404

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1958 7,000 sqft lot $63/sqft · 26% below area Est $88k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this charming and updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in a quiet, established neighborhood. Featuring a functional layout with comfortable living space, this property offers fresh interior touches, neutral colors, and great natural light throughout. The kitchen provides ample storage and flows easily into the living area—ideal for everyday living. Sitting on a generous lot, the backyard delivers plenty of room for outdoor activities, pets, or future additions. With convenient access to schools, parks, shopping, and major roadways, this home is a great option for both homeowners and investors.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 131 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ervin El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 405 students, 97% FRL, charter); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 49% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.92%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,749
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -25.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $34,635
• Equity at exit: $30,048

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $85,958
• Equity at exit: $46,956

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,113 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,238/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $596

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $445	-5% $427	+0% $408	+5% $390	+10% $371
Rent	-10% $320	-5% $364	+0% $408	+5% $452	+10% $496
Rate	-1.0pp $441	-0.5pp $425	base $408	+0.5pp $391	+1.0pp $374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2603 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,175	$0.97	45d	1	0.17mi
1516 E 27th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,195	$1.17	45d	1	0.69mi
1704 E 29th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	832	$775	$0.93	22d	1	0.79mi
505 E 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,125	$1.17	15d	1	0.87mi
209 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	45d	1	0.89mi
211 36th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	45d	1	0.89mi
330 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	15d	1	0.97mi
332 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	725	$700	$0.97	22d	1	0.97mi
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$695	$0.64	22d	1	0.98mi
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$750	$0.69	45d	1	0.98mi
1903 E 15th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	15d	1	1.01mi
607 Main St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1500	$1,049	$0.70	45d	1	1.07mi
2015 Avenue L Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$960	$0.98	15d	1	1.08mi
419 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1206	$950	$0.79	45d	1	1.09mi
1313 25th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	780	$875	$1.12	45d	1	1.16mi
512 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$849	$0.97	15d	1	1.16mi
1516 E 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	22d	1	1.23mi
2206 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$975	$0.85	46d	1	1.30mi
1204 36th St Unit b Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$835	$0.96	15d	1	1.30mi
2117 E Broadway Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	45d	1	1.31mi
1915 Avenue O Unit O Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$750	$1.02	45d	1	1.31mi
2123 E Broadway Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	22d	1	1.32mi
3104 Avenue N Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$785	$1.05	22d	1	1.32mi
2211 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	45d	1	1.33mi
2906 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	45d	1	1.35mi
1220 Broadway St Unit 1704 Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1098	$999	$0.91	45d	1	1.35mi
220 44th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$910	$0.93	15d	1	1.35mi
2226 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	45d	1	1.35mi
1220 Broadway St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,500	$1.61	15d	7	1.35mi
1601 21st St Unit a Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$925	$0.94	15d	1	1.36mi
519 42nd St Apt A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1092	$895	$0.82	15d	1	1.36mi
824 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	45d	1	1.37mi
1202 Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$1,653	$1.80	15d	13	1.39mi
1609 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	862	$900	$1.04	45d	1	1.40mi
1610 28th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$750	$0.71	15d	1	1.41mi
808 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$695	$0.84	22d	1	1.42mi
2806 E 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$900	$0.99	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $65,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-02-10
    listed $65,000 Active 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Discover this charming and updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in a quiet, established neighborhood. Featuring a functional layout with comfortable living space, this property offers fresh interior touches, neutral colors, and great natural light throughout. The kitchen provides ample storage and flows easily into the living area—ideal for everyday living. Sitting on a generous lot, the backyard delivers plenty of room for outdoor activities, pets, or future additions. With convenient access to schools, parks, shopping, and major roadways, this home is a great option for both homeowners and investors.

19. 2024-01-11
    historical $700
20. 2023-12-20
    price $700
21. 2023-11-10
    listed $800
22. 2017-12-08
    soldstatus 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Please call Charley for appointment to Show 24 hours advance. Current renter pays $565 monthly. At this price you can have a 12 CAP rate. Minor upgrade to house could raise rent to $650.00 Elementary and Jr high near by. Can be sold as a 3 house package.

23. 2017-10-09
    listed $45,500 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Please call Charley for appointment to Show 24 hours advance. Current renter pays $565 monthly. At this price you can have a 12 CAP rate. Minor upgrade to house could raise rent to $650.00 Elementary and Jr high near by. Can be sold as a 3 house package.

24. 2009-03-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,238 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,238 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,238
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,069
• − Management: −$1,069
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$990
• After-tax cash flow: $3,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $65,000 LARMLS
• 2024-01-11 Rental Removed $700 LARMLS
• 2023-12-20 Price Changed $700 LARMLS
• 2023-11-10 Listed for Rent $800 LARMLS
• 2017-12-08 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2017-10-09 Listed $45,500 LARMLS
• 2009-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,238 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.