38 Hamilton St · Albany, NY 12084

$350,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1964 0.83 ac lot $202/sqft · 11% below area Est $394k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-bedroom Colonial located in the highly desirable Guilderland School District, nestled in a quiet, well-established neighborhood. This home offers plenty of room to grow, featuring a large basement with walkout access ready to be fully finished to suit your needs, whether it's a home gym, entertainment space, or additional living area. Enjoy outdoor living in the generous yard, perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting gatherings. A wonderful opportunity to make this home your own in a peaceful and convenient location.

Key facts

• Generous yard
• Large basement
• Walkout access

Tags

• LARGE BASEMENT
• WALKOUT ACCESS
• GENEROUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-676 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (34.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.7% in Albany — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#129 in NY, #2,083 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Guilderland Central School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #166 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Guilderland Elementary School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 475 students, 22% FRL); Farnsworth Middle School (math 42% / reading 68%, grade B-, #212 of 729 statewide, top 29%, 1,151 students, 24% FRL); Guilderland High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 1,462 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,503 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.28%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,131
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -11.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
90 Willow St	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,592 (-8%)	18mo	$340,000	$214	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $47,944
• Equity at exit: $209,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $178,071
• Equity at exit: $370,348

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12084

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$631 /mo · $7,568/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,306

Max offer price $230,503

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-478	-5% $-577	+0% $-676	+5% $-776	+10% $-875
Rent	-10% $-870	-5% $-773	+0% $-676	+5% $-580	+10% $-483
Rate	-1.0pp $-500	-0.5pp $-587	base $-676	+0.5pp $-767	+1.0pp $-859

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 W Creek Ln Bldg 8 Altamont, NY	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,450	$1.70	16d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 536-char remark

   Show marketing remark (536 chars)

   Spacious 4-bedroom Colonial located in the highly desirable Guilderland School District, nestled in a quiet, well-established neighborhood. This home offers plenty of room to grow, featuring a large basement with walkout access ready to be fully finished to suit your needs, whether it's a home gym, entertainment space, or additional living area. Enjoy outdoor living in the generous yard, perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting gatherings. A wonderful opportunity to make this home your own in a peaceful and convenient location.

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $350,000 Active 536-char remark

   Show marketing remark (536 chars)

   Spacious 4-bedroom Colonial located in the highly desirable Guilderland School District, nestled in a quiet, well-established neighborhood. This home offers plenty of room to grow, featuring a large basement with walkout access ready to be fully finished to suit your needs, whether it's a home gym, entertainment space, or additional living area. Enjoy outdoor living in the generous yard, perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting gatherings. A wonderful opportunity to make this home your own in a peaceful and convenient location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,568 · $631/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,568 · $631/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$7,568
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$14,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,458
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilderland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613080
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $75,669
• Composite: 57.24/100
• National rank: #1093
• State rank: #166 of 590 in NY

Livability — Albany

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #2083

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 116,921
• Population (ZIP): 5,054

Population outlook (Albany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 320,794 people
• By 2030: 327,401 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 338,218 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 348,467 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 381,693 · +19.0%
• By 2100: 393,809 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Asian 28% Black 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Albany

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.8) · D 62.9% · R 37.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.8 2020: D+31.4 2016: D+24.3 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.51%
• Current HPI: 320.4498
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $350,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,568 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.