189 N Evans Ave · Freeport, NY 11520

$450,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,901 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1928 6,250 sqft lot $237/sqft · 43% below area Est $787k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Neighborhood, Lots of Potential!! Third Party Authorization Required.

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1928

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• Recommended offer: $436k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.0% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#69 in NY, #1,033 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Baldwin Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #93 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $450k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $436,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.17%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $787,361
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -42.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
187 Green Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,716 (-10%)	4mo	$675,000	$393	69
1 Willowbrook Ln	0.18mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,044 (+8%)	1mo	$733,000	$359	69
20 Sterling Pl	0.40mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,980 (+4%)	2mo	$772,500	$390	62
142 Maryland Ave	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,172 (+14%)	4mo	$775,000	$357	60
62 Alhambra Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-0%)	2mo	$384,750	$203	59
1020 Henhawk Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,946 (+2%)	5mo	$800,000	$411	59
29 Colonial Ave	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,087 (+10%)	0mo	$850,000	$407	59
1515 Paul St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (-7%)	5mo	$400,000	$226	54
41 W Fulton Ave	0.60mi	4/1.0	2,099 (+10%)	2mo	$560,000	$267	49
1426 Forest Ave	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,058 (+8%)	3mo	$825,000	$401	48
31 Cedar St	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,645 (-14%)	1mo	$680,000	$413	44
117 N Grove St	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,620 (-15%)	4mo	$720,000	$444	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-58,067
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-30,532
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11520

• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$977 /mo · $11,725/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$998
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,461

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Mayfair Ct Freeport, NY	3.0	2.5	1860	$4,750	$2.55	7d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-15
   listed $450,000 Active 75-char remark

   Show marketing remark (75 chars)

   Great Neighborhood, Lots of Potential!! Third Party Authorization Required.

2. 2020-11-22
   historical
3. 2019-11-22
   listed $475,000 New
4. 1996-07-22
   soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,725 · $977/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,725 · $977/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$11,725
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,560
• − Management: −$4,560
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,054
• After-tax cash flow: $3,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3603840
• Math proficiency: 69% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $99,594
• Composite: 64.93/100
• National rank: #509
• State rank: #93 of 590 in NY

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #1033

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeport, NY
• City population: 44,873
• Population (ZIP): 44,873

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% Black 33% White 19% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 15%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Scotch-Irish 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 38% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -721.06%
• Current HPI: 317.6076
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+181.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-22 Listed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $11,725 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.