2807 Erskine Creek Rd Rd #105 · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 197 Days on market

Built 1989 $74/sqft · 28% above area Est $67k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

LakeRidge Mobile Home Park Goodie! Discover comfort and convenience in this well- kept 1989 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Manufactured home featuring a desirable split floorplan for added privacy. Enjoy a spacious living area perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus newer windows that bring in plenty of natural light. Hardwood flooring in the living area with carpet in both Bedrooms. Outside you'll find a small easy to maintain fenced yard with a lovely view as it backs up to an open field. Great area for pets! There is also 2 handy storage sheds-great for tools, hobbies, or extra storage for belongings. Located in a welcoming 55 plus community with park amenities such as an in ground pool and club house - and a friendly neighborhood feel. All Appliances are included. The $550 rent includes trash and sewer. All other utilities are billed directly by the utility company.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Fenced yard
• Split floorplan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• NEWER WINDOWS
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FENCED YARD
• OPEN FIELD VIEW
• STORAGE SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $809 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 7.4% in Lake Isabella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.78%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,502
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 27.82%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2807 Erskine Creek Rd #90	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+8%)	15mo	$20,000	$16	69
2617 Crestview Ave	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+8%)	9mo	$67,500	$54	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $73,798
• Equity at exit: $51,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.45×
• Total profit: $177,386
• Equity at exit: $90,551

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,706 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $689/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $809

Break-even live

Break-even rent $682

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    price $85,000 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    LakeRidge Mobile Home Park Goodie! Discover comfort and convenience in this well- kept 1989 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Manufactured home featuring a desirable split floorplan for added privacy. Enjoy a spacious living area perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus newer windows that bring in plenty of natural light. Hardwood flooring in the living area with carpet in both Bedrooms. Outside you'll find a small easy to maintain fenced yard with a lovely view as it backs up to an open field. Great area for pets! There is also 2 handy storage sheds-great for tools, hobbies, or extra storage for belongings. Located in a welcoming 55 plus community with park amenities such as an in ground pool and club house - and a friendly neighborhood feel. All Appliances are included. The $550 rent includes trash and sewer. All other utilities are billed directly by the utility company.

16. 2026-01-17
    price $69,000 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    LakeRidge Mobile Home Park Goodie! Discover comfort and convenience in this well- kept 1989 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Manufactured home featuring a desirable split floorplan for added privacy. Enjoy a spacious living area perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus newer windows that bring in plenty of natural light. Hardwood flooring in the living area with carpet in both Bedrooms. Outside you'll find a small easy to maintain fenced yard with a lovely view as it backs up to an open field. Great area for pets! There is also 2 handy storage sheds-great for tools, hobbies, or extra storage for belongings. Located in a welcoming 55 plus community with park amenities such as an in ground pool and club house - and a friendly neighborhood feel. All Appliances are included. The $550 rent includes trash and sewer. All other utilities are billed directly by the utility company.

17. 2025-11-30
    listed $85,000 Active 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    LakeRidge Mobile Home Park Goodie! Discover comfort and convenience in this well- kept 1989 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Manufactured home featuring a desirable split floorplan for added privacy. Enjoy a spacious living area perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus newer windows that bring in plenty of natural light. Hardwood flooring in the living area with carpet in both Bedrooms. Outside you'll find a small easy to maintain fenced yard with a lovely view as it backs up to an open field. Great area for pets! There is also 2 handy storage sheds-great for tools, hobbies, or extra storage for belongings. Located in a welcoming 55 plus community with park amenities such as an in ground pool and club house - and a friendly neighborhood feel. All Appliances are included. The $550 rent includes trash and sewer. All other utilities are billed directly by the utility company.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 10 d/yr ≥94°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$689
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,123
• After-tax cash flow: $7,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $85,000 SSMLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $69,000 SSMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listed $85,000 SSMLS

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $689 · +20.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.