16011 SW 44th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$259,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · Land · 70 Days on market

Built 2025 0.29 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

10 years warranty, moving ready. Oversize lot 0.29 acre. Single-story, modern, and move-in ready home located at 16011 SW 44th Circle, Ocala, FL. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath property offers the perfect blend of affordability and upscale finishes. Inside, you’ll find durable vinyl flooring throughout and porcelain-tiled bathrooms, creating a clean, contemporary look with easy maintenance. With its beautiful modern design and high-quality details, this home feels elevated while staying budget-friendly—an excellent opportunity for anyone looking for comfort, style, and value in Ocala. Pictures are from a similar house with the same floor plan.

Key facts

• Oversize lot
• Modern design
• High-quality details

Tags

• OVERSIZE LOT
• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING
• PORCELAIN-TILED BATHROOMS
• MODERN DESIGN
• HIGH-QUALITY DETAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($600/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,380 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.83%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-44,832
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-58,336
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $992/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,960

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16090 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.08mi
16094 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.09mi
333 Marion Oaks Golf Way Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	14d	1	0.22mi
4605 SW 158th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,695	$0.99	21d	1	0.40mi
15712 SW 37th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,850	$1.02	21d	1	0.55mi
15568 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,200	$1.20	14d	1	0.55mi
393 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	14d	1	0.62mi
15760 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,000	$1.32	21d	1	0.68mi
267 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,799	$1.14	14d	1	0.68mi
15885 SW 35th Court Rd Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,550	$1.29	21d	1	0.70mi
16090 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$1,950	$1.08	14d	1	0.75mi
15944 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,850	$1.40	21d	1	0.76mi
550 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,850	$1.17	14d	1	0.77mi
16100 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	14d	1	0.78mi
566 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,100	$1.17	14d	1	0.79mi
3540 SW 163rd Place Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,600	$1.32	21d	1	0.82mi
15962 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	14d	1	0.82mi
5141 SW 157th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.83mi
16170 SW 33rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	14d	1	0.84mi
5029 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.86mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	14d	1	0.87mi
422 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,900	$1.20	14d	1	0.88mi
4473 SW 168th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,000	$1.11	14d	1	0.88mi
15713 SW 49th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.89mi
5077 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1761	$2,045	$1.16	14d	1	0.90mi
4484 SW 151st St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	21d	1	0.92mi
15755 SW 33rd Avenue Rd Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	21d	1	0.95mi
14919 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1870	$2,000	$1.07	14d	1	0.97mi
17000 SW 41st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,000	$1.22	14d	1	1.00mi
576 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,845	$1.08	14d	1	1.01mi
4513 SW 170th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,950	$1.10	21d	1	1.02mi
15415 SW 34th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	21d	1	1.04mi
4572 SW 149th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,950	$1.11	21d	1	1.04mi
4535 SW 172nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,150	$1.15	14d	1	1.07mi
15018 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,625	$1.15	14d	1	1.08mi
14965 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1342	$1,700	$1.27	14d	1	1.08mi
15209 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,650	$0.98	21d	1	1.09mi
16054 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	1.12mi
357 Marion Oaks Blvd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,695	$1.41	14d	1	1.12mi
2211 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	21d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   status Active
3. 2026-03-18
   historical
4. 2026-03-06
   price $259,000
5. 2026-01-08
   listed $285,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,158/yr (+$96/mo · 116.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$992
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$3,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$943
• After-tax cash flow: $1,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $992 · +184.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.