426 SW 1st Ave · Winnebago, MN 56098

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,298 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1958 0.37 ac lot Est $119k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very solid and spacious 3 BR, 2 bath brick home on a nicely landscaped corner lot. This home features a spacious eat-in kitchen with generous cabinetry and a built in range and dishwasher, an open living/dining area with built in hutch, 3 main floor bedro

Key facts

• City park and pool
• Front porch
• 1/3 acre yard

Tags

• 1/3 ACRE YARD
• FRONT PORCH
• DECK OFF LIVING ROOM
• ACCESS FROM BACK YARD
• CITY PARK AND POOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached concrete garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Built with full basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Corner lot; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Cooktop; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Family room fireplace; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#162 in MN, #3,494 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Earth Area Public School (town): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #245 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Faribault County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Faribault County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $170k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.66%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,496
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
454 1st Ave Ave NW	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,116 (-8%)	5mo	$109,500	$52	75
447 NW 1st Ave	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,486 (+8%)	0mo	$99,000	$40	72
549 S Main St	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,986 (-14%)	3mo	$188,500	$95	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $91,900
• Equity at exit: $145,238

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $263,682
• Equity at exit: $305,158

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56098

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,548/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-17
   listed $170,000 Active
2. 2011-10-24
   soldstatus $81,500
3. 2011-10-21
   soldstatus $81,500 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Very solid and spacious 3 BR, 2 bath brick home on a nicely landscaped corner lot. This home features a spacious eat-in kitchen with generous cabinetry and a built in range and dishwasher, an open living/dining area with built in hutch, 3 main floor bedro

4. 2011-02-28
   listed $84,900 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Very solid and spacious 3 BR, 2 bath brick home on a nicely landscaped corner lot. This home features a spacious eat-in kitchen with generous cabinetry and a built in range and dishwasher, an open living/dining area with built in hutch, 3 main floor bedro

5. 2009-05-01
   listed $116,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,548 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,548 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,548
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$367
• After-tax cash flow: $1,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Earth Area Public School
• NCES district ID: 2700130
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,434
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6095
• State rank: #245 of 301 in MN

Livability — Winnebago

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #3494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winnebago, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,946

Population outlook (Faribault County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,474 people
• By 2030: 13,112 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 12,454 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 11,973 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 11,565 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 10,844 · -19.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Faribault

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.4% · R 67.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.8pp toward R · 2008: -5.6pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+9.1 2008: R+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.36%
• Current HPI: 281.463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+45.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $170,000 RASM
• 2011-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $81,500 Public Records
• 2011-10-21 Sold (MLS) $81,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-28 Listed $84,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-01 Listed $116,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,548 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.