509 E Martin Luther King Blvd · Jasper, TX 75951

$123,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 451 Days on market

Built 1950 3.34 ac lot $69/sqft · 27% above area Est $97k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THREE ACRE LOT! You will like this large one-story home located in in Jasper, Texas. It features approximately 1662 sq ft of living space and is on a large 3-acre lot with approximately (145,316 sq ft). Although it needs work, the large lot offers potential for customization and expansion. Conveniently located near supermarkets, convenience stores, and US-96, this property provides easy access to essentials. Ideal for those looking to personalize their living space in a great Jasper location. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information about the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Large one story home
• Three acre lot
• 3.34 acre lot

Tags

• THREE ACRE LOT
• LARGE ONE STORY HOME
• EASY ACCESS TO ESSENTIALS
• GREAT JASPER LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $854 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 451 days — a 12% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,679 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 451 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.86%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,245
• List price: $123,499
• Delta: 27.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $9,099
• Equity at exit: $18,414

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $45,438
• Equity at exit: $10,678

Cash invested: $34,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$648
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,580/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,052

Max offer price $123,499

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,875
• Closing costs: $3,705
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 N Peachtree St Jasper, TX	3.0	2.0	1627	$2,000	$1.23	13d	1	1.05mi
469 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	13d	1	1.10mi
816 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1270	$1,095	$0.86	13d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,499 Active 451 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,499 Active 450 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,499 Active 449 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $123,499 Active 448 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $123,499 Active 446 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,499 Active 445 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $123,499 Active 443 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,499 Active 442 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $123,499 Active 441 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $123,499 Active 440 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $123,499 Active 437 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $123,499 Active 436 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $123,499 Active 435 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $123,499 Active 434 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,499 Active 433 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,499 Active 432 DOM
17. 2025-03-24
    listed $123,499 Active 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    THREE ACRE LOT! You will like this large one-story home located in in Jasper, Texas. It features approximately 1662 sq ft of living space and is on a large 3-acre lot with approximately (145,316 sq ft). Although it needs work, the large lot offers potential for customization and expansion. Conveniently located near supermarkets, convenience stores, and US-96, this property provides easy access to essentials. Ideal for those looking to personalize their living space in a great Jasper location. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information about the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,580 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,260 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$680/yr (+$57/mo · 43.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,918
• − Property taxes: −$1,580
• − Insurance: −$617
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,565
• − Management: −$1,565
• − Depreciation: −$3,593
• Taxable income: $3,722
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$893
• After-tax cash flow: $4,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1225
• US rank: #21385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasper, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-03-24 Listed $123,499 HARMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,580 · -11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.