18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #116 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$147,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured · 48 Days on market

Built 1977 $107/sqft · 30% below area Est $210k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Resort-Style 55+ Living with FREE Golf in Skyline Ranch! Welcome to one of North County’s best-kept secrets - Skyline Ranch Country Club! This spacious and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath DOUBLEWIDE with numerous updates offers nearly 1,400 sq ft of open-concept living on a desirable corner lot. Enjoy a light-filled layout with wood-burning fireplace, newer roof and dual-pane windows, large living and dining areas, and a kitchen with ample storage, counter space, and breakfast bar. The primary suite features office area plus ensuite bath with soaking tub and separate shower. Relax on two covered porches or enjoy the low-maintenance yard, 2 large storage sheds, and covered carport wi

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Dual-pane windows
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• NEWER ROOF
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• AMPLE STORAGE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• ENSUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed: dogs and cats; Park name: Skyline Ranch Country Club
• Financial info: Land lease of $1,750 monthly
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community features include golf course, dog park, and lake

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces; Two carport spaces; Located in Skyline Ranch Country Club park
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse model; Single-story; Entry on main level
• Construction: Shingle roof; Mobile home remains (24' x 57')
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Front and rear porches; Community pool; Corner landscaped lot; Level/flat yard with front and back yard; One shed; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom / primary suite (main level)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Double sinks in primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Main-level entry; One-story layout; Gated community
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $147k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,590 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.91%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,000
• List price: $147,000
• Delta: -30.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	81
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #7	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,355 (-1%)	21mo	$92,000	$68	81
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-4%)	9mo	$255,000	$195	79
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 211 Lot 211	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	2mo	$205,000	$164	78
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	14mo	$165,000	$115	75
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	12mo	$89,500	$62	75
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+12%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	73
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,530 (+12%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	72
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (+12%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	61
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+14%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	56
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #12	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+12%)	22mo	$129,000	$84	49
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 11	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+14%)	21mo	$180,000	$115	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $76,522
• Equity at exit: $21,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $195,978
• Equity at exit: $12,710

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$184 /mo · $2,205/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $1,575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,286

Max offer price $147,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $147,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $147,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $147,000 Active 821-char remark
16. 2025-11-05
    historical
17. 2025-10-04
    price $142,000
18. 2025-08-14
    price $149,000
19. 2025-07-14
    price $149,500
20. 2025-06-02
    price $164,000
21. 2025-05-01
    listed $179,000 Active
22. 2024-11-25
    historical
23. 2024-09-01
    listed $237,500 Active
24. 2024-09-01
    historical
25. 2024-01-15
    listed $259,000 Active
26. 2024-01-12
    historical
27. 2023-07-17
    historical
28. 2023-05-12
    listed $248,900 Active
29. 2023-05-11
    historical
30. 2015-01-12
    soldstatus $45,000 Sold
31. 2014-12-11
    status Pending
32. 2014-11-25
    price $49,000
33. 2014-10-06
    listed $54,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$2,205
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,148
• − Management: −$3,148
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable income: $17,604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,225
• After-tax cash flow: $14,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+167.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $147,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $142,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $149,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $149,500 CRMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $164,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-09-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-09-01 Listed $237,500 CRMLS
• 2024-01-15 Listed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2024-01-12 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2023-07-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-05-12 Listed $248,900 CRMLS
• 2023-05-11 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2015-01-12 Sold (MLS) $45,000 SDMLS
• 2014-12-11 Pending — SDMLS
• 2014-11-25 Price Changed $49,000 SDMLS
• 2014-10-06 Listed $54,900 SDMLS