861 W Foxcroft Dr · Wormleysburg, PA 17011

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,557 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1960 10,454 sqft lot Est $296k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable ranch that is brick on all sides. Great schools and neighborhood. Home has been freshly painted with crown molding throughout. Recent upgrades include: central Air, refinished hardwood floors, new ceramic tiles in kitchen, new kitchen sink and counter-tops, finished basement that includes lifetime waterproofing warranty. Plenty of room to add extra bathroom in the basement.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Accessibility with multiple access/exit points; Estimated above-grade and below-grade finished area (above grade approx. 1,107; below grade approx. 550)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking via driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached structure; Estimated year built; Composite roof; Block foundation
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Fully finished basement (below grade)
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Above- and below-grade finished living areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range/oven
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second/upper level; Multiple bedrooms including master bedroom, den, office (see room list)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on second/upper level)
• Interior features: Dining area; Fully finished basement with full height
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-253/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#268 in PA, #2,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• West Shore SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #222 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Heights El Sch (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,094 of 1,518 statewide, top 73%, 392 students, 63% FRL); New Cumberland Ms (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #346 of 512 statewide, top 69%, 549 students, 49% FRL); Cedar Cliff Hs (math 56% / reading 24%, grade F, #263 of 437 statewide, top 60%, 1,353 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 25% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,918 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,830
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
531 Rupley Rd	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,620 (+4%)	4mo	$287,500	$177	83
510 Echo Rd	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,695 (+9%)	7mo	$319,900	$189	68
901 W Foxcroft Dr	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,760 (+13%)	10mo	$310,000	$176	67
832 Yverdon Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+9%)	11mo	$310,000	$182	65
12 Shady Rd	0.50mi	3/3.0	1,550 (-0%)	5mo	$385,000	$248	64
51 Burd Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (+8%)	2mo	$365,000	$218	63
58 Burd Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+11%)	2mo	$327,000	$190	60
817 Yverdon Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+6%)	21mo	$336,150	$204	60
5 Arnold St	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,619 (+4%)	18mo	$314,900	$195	58
531 N 2nd St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,459 (-6%)	16mo	$200,000	$137	46
6 Stephen Rd	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,782 (+14%)	1mo	$285,000	$160	38
312 Glenn Rd	0.66mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,720 (+10%)	9mo	$335,000	$195	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,959
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-803
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17011

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,351/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,786

Max offer price $196,173

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $35	+0% $-21	+5% $-78	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-91	+0% $-21	+5% $48	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $30	base $-21	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 W Crestwood Dr Camp Hill, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$2,071	$1.99	16d	14	0.36mi
20 House Ave Camp Hill, PA	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,720	$1.38	16d	2	0.47mi
616 N Front St Lemoyne, PA	3.0	1.0	1408	$1,650	$1.17	45d	1	0.52mi
1320 Penn St Harrisburg, PA	2.0	1.0	1193	$1,495	$1.25	45d	1	1.42mi
1008 N 2nd St Unit 2 Harrisburg, PA	2.0	1.0	1410	$1,295	$0.92	45d	1	1.42mi
1202 Penn St Harrisburg, PA	4.0	1.0	1706	$1,495	$0.88	45d	1	1.44mi
1834 Green St Harrisburg, PA	4.0	1.0	1792	$1,495	$0.83	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $199,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   remarks 218-char remark
4. 2026-06-14
   listed $199,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,351 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,351 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,351
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,689
• − Management: −$1,689
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$871
• After-tax cash flow: $618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Shore SD
• NCES district ID: 4225830
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,398
• Composite: 40.9/100
• National rank: #3617
• State rank: #222 of 539 in PA

Livability — Wormleysburg

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #2349

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wormleysburg, PA
• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 39,664
• Household income: $92,556
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 858.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.65%
• Current HPI: 254.4755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+139.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-12 Sold (MLS) $153,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-03-31 Listed $153,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $157,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-21 Sold (MLS) $157,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-07-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-07-23 Listed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,351 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.