107 Wilson St · Jasper, TX 75951

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,854 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home in Jasper in wonderful condition. This 3 bedroom home has not one but two living areas. With covered porches and privacy fencing there is room for the kids to play and Sunday afternoon barbecues. This home also has a shop/work area in addition to a great carport. There is also space inside with built ins that would make a great office. The lot and workshop across the street is included at this price. Call today and lets go take a look.

Key facts

• Great carport
• Covered porches
• Privacy fencing

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• COVERED PORCHES
• PRIVACY FENCING
• SHOP WORK AREA
• GREAT CARPORT
• BUILT INS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.7% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.19%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,288
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $35,454
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,211/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,129

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $455	-5% $420	+0% $385	+5% $349	+10% $314
Rent	-10% $257	-5% $321	+0% $385	+5% $449	+10% $512
Rate	-1.0pp $448	-0.5pp $416	base $385	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 N Peachtree St Jasper, TX	3.0	2.0	1627	$2,000	$1.23	15d	1	1.31mi
469 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	15d	1	1.36mi
816 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1270	$1,095	$0.86	15d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-11-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-21
   historical 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   Great starter home in Jasper in wonderful condition. This 3 bedroom home has not one but two living areas. With covered porches and privacy fencing there is room for the kids to play and Sunday afternoon barbecues. This home also has a shop/work area in addition to a great carport. There is also space inside with built ins that would make a great office. The lot and workshop across the street is included at this price. Call today and lets go take a look.

3. 2025-11-10
   listed $125,000 Active
4. 2025-11-07
   listed $125,000 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   Great starter home in Jasper in wonderful condition. This 3 bedroom home has not one but two living areas. With covered porches and privacy fencing there is room for the kids to play and Sunday afternoon barbecues. This home also has a shop/work area in addition to a great carport. There is also space inside with built ins that would make a great office. The lot and workshop across the street is included at this price. Call today and lets go take a look.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,211 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$76/yr (+$6/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,211
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$675
• After-tax cash flow: $3,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1225
• US rank: #21385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasper, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-27 Pending — BBOR
• 2025-11-21 Delisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $125,000 BBOR
• 2025-11-07 Listed $125,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,211 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.