536 Circle Dr · Stanley, VA 22851

$109,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 809 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1979 0.68 ac lot $136/sqft · 57% below area $9/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for your next project or investment? Check out this fixer upper in Skyline Lakes outside of Stanley, Virginia. This property offers numerous opportunities for someone with a dream / vision. Improvements on the property are sold in strictly "as is" condition. Do not enter any structures on the property. Seller is not aware of any existing septic system or well on the property. A new three bedroom septic letter has been obtained for the future installation of a septic system. Court approval required on all contracts and deed will be a special warranty deed from a Court appointed special commissioner. Bring your plans and vision and make this property into your dream cabin! All offers due by July 21, 2025 at 11AM (EST).

Key facts

• Large secluded lot
• 0.68 acre lot
• Built 1979

Tags

• GLASSED IN REAR PORCH
• LARGE SECLUDED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee of $111

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Septic system; Cistern water source
• Home design: Detached structure; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Located outside city limits; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard hot water heating; Oil-fired heating; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Basement with connecting stairway

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $954 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 4.7% in Stanley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#257 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $110k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.22%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,329
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -57.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1373 Park Line Rd	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	769 (-5%)	8mo	$255,000	$332	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $120,605
• Equity at exit: $99,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.99×
• Total profit: $307,303
• Equity at exit: $213,512

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22851

• Home prices YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $331/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $954

Break-even live

Break-even rent $834

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,017	-5% $985	+0% $954	+5% $923	+10% $892
Rent	-10% $793	-5% $874	+0% $954	+5% $1,035	+10% $1,116
Rate	-1.0pp $1,010	-0.5pp $982	base $954	+0.5pp $926	+1.0pp $897

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $109,900 Active 582-char remark
17. 2025-08-06
    soldstatus $57,100 Sold 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Looking for your next project or investment? Check out this fixer upper in Skyline Lakes outside of Stanley, Virginia. This property offers numerous opportunities for someone with a dream / vision. Improvements on the property are sold in strictly "as is" condition. Do not enter any structures on the property. Seller is not aware of any existing septic system or well on the property and believes electricity has been disconnected and meter removed some time ago. A new three bedroom septic letter has been obtained for the future installation of a septic system. Court approval required on all contracts and deed will be a special warranty deed from a Court appointed special commissioner. Bring your plans and vision and make this property into your dream cabin! All offers due by July 21, 2025 at 11AM (EST).

18. 2025-08-06
    soldstatus $57,100 Closed

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Looking for your next project or investment? Check out this fixer upper in Skyline Lakes outside of Stanley, Virginia. This property offers numerous opportunities for someone with a dream / vision. Improvements on the property are sold in strictly "as is" condition. Do not enter any structures on the property. Seller is not aware of any existing septic system or well on the property and believes electricity has been disconnected and meter removed some time ago. A new three bedroom septic letter has been obtained for the future installation of a septic system. Court approval required on all contracts and deed will be a special warranty deed from a Court appointed special commissioner. Bring your plans and vision and make this property into your dream cabin! All offers due by July 21, 2025 at 11AM (EST).

19. 2025-07-22
    status Pending 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Looking for your next project or investment? Check out this fixer upper in Skyline Lakes outside of Stanley, Virginia. This property offers numerous opportunities for someone with a dream / vision. Improvements on the property are sold in strictly "as is" condition. Do not enter any structures on the property. Seller is not aware of any existing septic system or well on the property and believes electricity has been disconnected and meter removed some time ago. A new three bedroom septic letter has been obtained for the future installation of a septic system. Court approval required on all contracts and deed will be a special warranty deed from a Court appointed special commissioner. Bring your plans and vision and make this property into your dream cabin! All offers due by July 21, 2025 at 11AM (EST).

20. 2025-07-22
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Looking for your next project or investment? Check out this fixer upper in Skyline Lakes outside of Stanley, Virginia. This property offers numerous opportunities for someone with a dream / vision. Improvements on the property are sold in strictly "as is" condition. Do not enter any structures on the property. Seller is not aware of any existing septic system or well on the property and believes electricity has been disconnected and meter removed some time ago. A new three bedroom septic letter has been obtained for the future installation of a septic system. Court approval required on all contracts and deed will be a special warranty deed from a Court appointed special commissioner. Bring your plans and vision and make this property into your dream cabin! All offers due by July 21, 2025 at 11AM (EST).

21. 2025-07-14
    listed $40,000 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Looking for your next project or investment? Check out this fixer upper in Skyline Lakes outside of Stanley, Virginia. This property offers numerous opportunities for someone with a dream / vision. Improvements on the property are sold in strictly "as is" condition. Do not enter any structures on the property. Seller is not aware of any existing septic system or well on the property and believes electricity has been disconnected and meter removed some time ago. A new three bedroom septic letter has been obtained for the future installation of a septic system. Court approval required on all contracts and deed will be a special warranty deed from a Court appointed special commissioner. Bring your plans and vision and make this property into your dream cabin! All offers due by July 21, 2025 at 11AM (EST).

22. 2025-07-14
    listed $40,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Looking for your next project or investment? Check out this fixer upper in Skyline Lakes outside of Stanley, Virginia. This property offers numerous opportunities for someone with a dream / vision. Improvements on the property are sold in strictly "as is" condition. Do not enter any structures on the property. Seller is not aware of any existing septic system or well on the property and believes electricity has been disconnected and meter removed some time ago. A new three bedroom septic letter has been obtained for the future installation of a septic system. Court approval required on all contracts and deed will be a special warranty deed from a Court appointed special commissioner. Bring your plans and vision and make this property into your dream cabin! All offers due by July 21, 2025 at 11AM (EST).

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $331 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$570/yr (+$48/mo · 172.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$331
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $10,240
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,458
• After-tax cash flow: $8,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Page County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102850
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,808
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2943
• State rank: #96 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stanley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #8832

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,894

Population outlook (Page County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,843 people
• By 2030: 22,147 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,427 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 18,461 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 14,363 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 10,678 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Page

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.1) · D 22.5% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -54.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.1 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.09%
• Current HPI: 350.7392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+174.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $109,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-06 Sold (MLS) $57,100 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-06 Sold (MLS) $57,100 HRAR
• 2025-07-22 Pending — HRAR
• 2025-07-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $40,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $40,000 HRAR

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $331 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.