8400 Breeze Hill Dr · Indian Lake Estates, FL 33898

$199,793

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Land · 260 Days on market

Built 2025 4,613 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Are you searching for the perfect retirement or seasonal escape, and want to own your own land with city sewer and city water? Whether you're a snowbird looking for warmer weather or a Florida native ready for an active lifestyle, this 55+ lakeside community of Breeze Hill with very low HOA fees! Experience the perfect blend of modern living and natural beauty with this BRAND-NEW manufactured home, situated on a cul-de-sac street and land that you own! This beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, offers a spacious, open floor plan ideal for modern living. From the moment you arrive, you'll be charmed by the spacious front porch, a perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee! Step ins

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac street
• 4,613 sq ft lot
• Built 2025

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC STREET
• HIGH-QUALITY FINISHES
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• LUXURIOUS EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Projected completion date: 2025-10-15; Home warranty included
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $200, $16.67/month); Association fee required; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; New construction (completed); Southwest facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation with crawlspace; Built by Cavco Craft Select, model 340CS2848A
• Exterior features: Front porch; Private mailbox; Cul-de-sac lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Blinds; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($679/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spook Hill Elementary School (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 584 students, 67% FRL); Frostproof Middle/Senior High (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 1,150 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $200k implies a 899% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,817 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,732
• Equity at exit: $29,790

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-20,223
• Equity at exit: $17,274

Cash invested: $55,942 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,997/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $199,793

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,948
• Closing costs: $5,994
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $199,793 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,794 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $199,794 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,795 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,795 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $199,795 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $199,896 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $199,899 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 243 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 242 DOM
16. 2026-05-23
    price $199,900
17. 2026-05-21
    price $232,378
18. 2026-05-20
    price $232,478
19. 2026-05-19
    price $232,578
20. 2026-05-18
    price $232,678
21. 2026-05-15
    price $232,778
22. 2026-05-14
    price $232,878
23. 2026-05-13
    price $232,978
24. 2026-05-12
    price $233,078
25. 2026-05-11
    price $233,178
26. 2026-05-08
    price $233,278
27. 2026-05-07
    price $233,378
28. 2026-05-06
    price $233,478
29. 2026-05-05
    price $233,578
30. 2026-05-04
    price $233,678
31. 2026-05-01
    price $233,778
32. 2026-04-30
    price $233,878
33. 2026-04-29
    price $233,978
34. 2026-04-28
    price $234,078
35. 2026-04-27
    price $234,178
36. 2026-04-24
    price $234,278
37. 2026-04-23
    price $234,378
38. 2026-04-22
    price $234,478
39. 2026-04-21
    price $234,578
40. 2026-04-20
    price $234,678
41. 2026-04-17
    price $234,778
42. 2026-04-16
    price $234,878
43. 2026-04-14
    price $234,978
44. 2026-04-13
    price $234,979
45. 2026-04-10
    price $234,980
46. 2026-04-09
    price $234,981
47. 2026-04-07
    price $234,982
48. 2026-04-06
    price $234,983
49. 2026-04-03
    price $234,984
50. 2026-04-02
    price $234,985

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,192
• − Property taxes: −$2,997
• − Insurance: −$999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$5,812
• Taxable loss: −$2,648
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$635
• After-tax cash flow: $1,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian Lake Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1899.0% since first listed

94 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $232,378 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $232,478 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $232,578 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $232,678 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $232,778 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $232,878 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $232,978 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $233,078 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $233,178 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $233,278 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $233,378 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $233,478 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $233,578 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $233,678 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $233,778 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $233,878 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $233,978 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $234,078 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $234,178 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $234,278 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $234,378 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $234,478 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $234,578 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $234,678 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $234,778 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $234,878 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $234,978 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $234,979 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $234,980 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $234,981 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $234,982 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $234,983 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $234,984 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $234,985 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $234,986 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $234,987 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $234,988 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $234,989 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $234,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $234,991 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $234,992 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $234,993 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $234,994 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $234,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $234,996 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $234,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $234,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $234,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $235,181 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $235,681 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $236,181 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $236,681 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $237,181 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $237,681 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $238,181 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $238,681 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $238,682 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $239,182 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $239,183 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $239,184 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $239,185 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $239,186 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $239,286 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $239,287 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $239,288 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $239,289 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $239,290 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $239,291 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $239,391 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $239,392 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $239,393 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $239,394 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $239,395 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $239,396 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $239,496 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $239,497 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $239,498 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $239,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $239,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $249,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $249,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $249,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $249,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $259,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $259,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $259,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $259,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $259,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $136 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.