23152 NW 11th Rd · Newberry, FL 32669

$334,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,825 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2007 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to Newberry Oaks with this 3 bedroom / 2 bathroom home with over 1800 SF of living space and backing to green space. The open floorplan is light and bright with 2 separate living areas, providing the perfect backdrop for a flex space or office. Kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, plenty of cabinetry for all your culinary needs, pantry, breakfast bar for additional seating and in-kitchen dining area highlighted by large window. Great room provides smooth transition to each area within the home, offering a variety of seating and décor options. Primary bedroom is spacious with walk-in closet, ensuite bathroom boasts dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and water closet. The split floorplan hosts the secondary bedrooms both nicely sized with large closets. Conveniently placed secondary bathroom features single vanity with tub/shower combo. Laundry room with washer dryer and storage. Covered lanai with open patio features hot tub (will convey), grilling and sitting areas. Back yard has fruit trees, storage shed and fully fenced yard. NO HOA! 2024 HVAC with surge protector, 2020 dishwasher, stove and fridge.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Walk-in closet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• IN-KITCHEN DINING AREA
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 418 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $238k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,912 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-59,065
• Equity at exit: $49,935

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-53,362
• Equity at exit: $28,956

Cash invested: $93,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32669

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 418
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,639 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,756
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,452/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,764

Max offer price $317,488

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,725
• Closing costs: $10,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 NW 248th Dr Newberry, FL	4.0	2.5	2148	$2,600	$1.21	20d	1	1.07mi
2181 NW 247th Dr Newberry, FL	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,475	$1.40	20d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $334,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $334,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $334,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $334,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $334,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $334,900 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-03-31
    listed $334,900 Active 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Welcome home to Newberry Oaks with this 3 bedroom / 2 bathroom home with over 1800 SF of living space and backing to green space. The open floorplan is light and bright with 2 separate living areas, providing the perfect backdrop for a flex space or office. Kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, plenty of cabinetry for all your culinary needs, pantry, breakfast bar for additional seating and in-kitchen dining area highlighted by large window. Great room provides smooth transition to each area within the home, offering a variety of seating and décor options. Primary bedroom is spacious with walk-in closet, ensuite bathroom boasts dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and water closet. The split floorplan hosts the secondary bedrooms both nicely sized with large closets. Conveniently placed secondary bathroom features single vanity with tub/shower combo. Laundry room with washer dryer and storage. Covered lanai with open patio features hot tub (will convey), grilling and sitting areas. Back yard has fruit trees, storage shed and fully fenced yard. NO HOA! 2024 HVAC with surge protector, 2020 dishwasher, stove and fridge.

18. 2020-07-14
    soldstatus $238,000
19. 2020-07-08
    soldstatus $238,000 1236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1236 chars)

    BACK ON MARKET, BUYER''S BUYER FINANCING FELL THROUGH. https://tours. gatormp.com/1559485?idx=1 CALL FOR VIRTUAL TOUR! 100%- Financing USDA eligible and NO HOA FEES! Beautiful and well-loved CONCRETE BLOCK home offering great spaces on over 1800 sq ft of heated & cooled space and backs up to no neighbors! Open lay out with natural flow from foyer to great-sized spaces! It offers freshly-painted formal dining and living rooms, a large family room big enough for gatherings and additional space for crafts/games. Cozy kitchen with GRANITE counters, STAINLESS STEEL appliances, breakfast nook, breakfast bar and plenty of storage. The fenced-backyard has mature plants, sugar cane, papaya, avocado, citrus trees and well-kept grounds! Split floor plan with spacious master suite with walk-in closet, garden tub, separate shower/toilet room & double vanities! Utility room with Washer/Dryer conveying! 2-car SIDE ENTRY garage for better curb appeal and more driveway for parking/toys! Zoned for great schools and less than 10 minutes to Jonesville shopping, Tioga Town Center and west developments! Add a few more minutes and straight shot to I-75! Laminate floors and tiles in main living areas, gutters, shed, gazebo . . .

20. 2020-03-10
    listed $238,900 1236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1236 chars)

    BACK ON MARKET, BUYER''S BUYER FINANCING FELL THROUGH. https://tours. gatormp.com/1559485?idx=1 CALL FOR VIRTUAL TOUR! 100%- Financing USDA eligible and NO HOA FEES! Beautiful and well-loved CONCRETE BLOCK home offering great spaces on over 1800 sq ft of heated & cooled space and backs up to no neighbors! Open lay out with natural flow from foyer to great-sized spaces! It offers freshly-painted formal dining and living rooms, a large family room big enough for gatherings and additional space for crafts/games. Cozy kitchen with GRANITE counters, STAINLESS STEEL appliances, breakfast nook, breakfast bar and plenty of storage. The fenced-backyard has mature plants, sugar cane, papaya, avocado, citrus trees and well-kept grounds! Split floor plan with spacious master suite with walk-in closet, garden tub, separate shower/toilet room & double vanities! Utility room with Washer/Dryer conveying! 2-car SIDE ENTRY garage for better curb appeal and more driveway for parking/toys! Zoned for great schools and less than 10 minutes to Jonesville shopping, Tioga Town Center and west developments! Add a few more minutes and straight shot to I-75! Laminate floors and tiles in main living areas, gutters, shed, gazebo . . .

21. 2020-01-18
    historical
22. 2019-09-17
    listed $249,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,452 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,452 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,760
• − Property taxes: −$3,452
• − Insurance: −$1,674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − Depreciation: −$9,743
• Taxable loss: −$7,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,686
• After-tax cash flow: $504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newberry, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 17,704
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,704
• Household income: $99,548
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Black 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.83%
• Current HPI: 263.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+34.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $334,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $238,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-08 Sold (MLS) $238,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-10 Listed $238,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-17 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,452 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.