75784 Lily Pond Ct · Jacksonville, FL 32097

$559,760

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,825 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 $13/mo HOA ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Brasher C Lot 119

Key facts

• 4 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $150; Community amenities include clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, jogging path, park, pickleball, and playground; CDD fees apply (annual amount listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic garage door; 4 garage spaces
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Underground electric; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Cable available; Low-flow water fixtures; Energy-efficient construction and windows
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Association pool (community); Sidewalks; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Kitchen on lower level and first level (finished with LVP flooring)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (mostly on the first level; one room listed on the lower level)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank (LVP) in kitchen, dining and family areas; Carpet in several bedrooms/other rooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Split bedrooms; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric and gas dryer hookups (laundry on lower level); Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $560k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (35.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (46.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (46.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildlight Elementary (math 90% / reading 80%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 1,025 students, 34% FRL); Yulee Middle School (math 73% / reading 61%, grade A-, #80 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 1,202 students, 41% FRL); Yulee High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,407 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$96k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,000 (46.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.63%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $232,529
• Equity at exit: $504,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $740,128
• Equity at exit: $1,087,491

Cash invested: $156,733 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,010 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,935
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,881/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-1,127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,437

Max offer price $360,639

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-810	-5% $-969	+0% $-1,127	+5% $-1,286	+10% $-1,444
Rent	-10% $-1,365	-5% $-1,246	+0% $-1,127	+5% $-1,008	+10% $-889
Rate	-1.0pp $-845	-0.5pp $-985	base $-1,127	+0.5pp $-1,272	+1.0pp $-1,420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $139,940
• Closing costs: $16,793
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75470 Sunberry Dr Yulee, FL	5.0	4.0	2903	$3,150	$1.09	20d	1	0.40mi
75094 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2193	$2,495	$1.14	2d	1	1.11mi
75047 Brookwood Dr Yulee, FL	5.0	3.0	3300	$3,405	$1.03	4d	1	1.13mi
75094 Glenspring Way Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,500	$1.22	24d	1	1.16mi
76195 Deerwood Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2757	$2,475	$0.90	24d	1	1.16mi
65013 Lagoon Forest Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	11d	1	1.27mi
75215 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2898	$2,900	$1.00	15d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $559,760 Active
3. 2025-11-18
   soldstatus $1,020,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,881 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,646 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: +$765/yr (+$64/mo · 19.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,355
• − Property taxes: −$3,881
• − Insurance: −$2,799
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,890
• − Management: −$2,890
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$16,284
• Taxable loss: −$24,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,792
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-45.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $559,760 realMLS
• 2025-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,020,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,881 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.