9533 Round Lake Dr · North Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

$269,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,832 sqft · Land · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW HOME!! PAVED ROAD and DRIVEWAY!! NO HOA!! NO FLOOD!! 4 bedrooms + 2 bathrooms on nice lot on a small lake with NO REAR NEIGHBORS!! Move-in Ready!! Open Floor Plan - LARGE HOME with 1,832 sq feet of living space!! Everything is BRAND NEW. .. NEW WELL, NEW SEPTIC, NEW HOME with NEW roof, NEW AC, NEW Stainless Steel Appliances, NEW cabinets, NEW countertops, NEW flooring, NEW front deck, NEW back deck, NEW landscaping, NEW wood privacy fencing on the side!! Everything is NEW! Comes is a 7 year transferrable warranty to the buyer! Everything is brand new. .. all you have to do is move-in and decorate!! Cash, conventional, FHA, and VA accepted. Call to come see it today!! Close to everything!! Shoppes, restaurants, hospitals, schools. .. everything!! Less than 10 minutes to kayaking, paddle-boarding, and swimming with the manatees in the clear Weeki Wachee River or enjoying a day at Buccaneer Bay Water Park!! 15 minutes to the sunsets at Pine Island, boating and fishing!! Less than 10 minutes to the Suncoast Parkway for quick and easy access to Tampa International Airport and for all the fun that Tampa Bay has to offer!! 1 hour + to TOP US BEACHES!! 1.5 hours to Disney World and Universal Studios and all the theme parks!!

Key facts

• Paved road
• Driveway
• No rear neighbors

Tags

• PAVED ROAD
• DRIVEWAY
• NO HOA
• NO FLOOD
• SMALL LAKE
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,832 square feet; Lot approximately 0.3 acres (110 x 110); Vegetation: Trees/landscaped

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Southwest facing; Residential zoning (R1A)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Landscaped yard; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in North Weeki Wachee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#534 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Winding Waters K-8 (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 1,622 students, 56% FRL); Weeki Wachee High School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,435 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,466/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 307% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $269k implies a 2590% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,581 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-37,884
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-25,540
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34613

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $182	+0% $89	+5% $-4	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-8	+0% $89	+5% $186	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $157	base $89	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7575 St Andrews Blvd Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,199	$1.45	26d	1	0.54mi
9003 Nakoma Way Unit 1234465P Spring Hill, FL	4.0	3.0	1506	$4,596	$3.05	6d	1	0.93mi
6288 Swan Ln Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,450	$1.17	26d	1	1.02mi
7718 Rome Ln Brooksville, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,200	$1.31	26d	1	1.42mi
9104 Wade St Brooksville, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,195	$1.42	4d	3	1.45mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $269,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-04-28
   status Pending 1249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1249 chars)

   BRAND NEW HOME!! PAVED ROAD and DRIVEWAY!! NO HOA!! NO FLOOD!! 4 bedrooms + 2 bathrooms on nice lot on a small lake with NO REAR NEIGHBORS!! Move-in Ready!! Open Floor Plan - LARGE HOME with 1,832 sq feet of living space!! Everything is BRAND NEW. .. NEW WELL, NEW SEPTIC, NEW HOME with NEW roof, NEW AC, NEW Stainless Steel Appliances, NEW cabinets, NEW countertops, NEW flooring, NEW front deck, NEW back deck, NEW landscaping, NEW wood privacy fencing on the side!! Everything is NEW! Comes is a 7 year transferrable warranty to the buyer! Everything is brand new. .. all you have to do is move-in and decorate!! Cash, conventional, FHA, and VA accepted. Call to come see it today!! Close to everything!! Shoppes, restaurants, hospitals, schools. .. everything!! Less than 10 minutes to kayaking, paddle-boarding, and swimming with the manatees in the clear Weeki Wachee River or enjoying a day at Buccaneer Bay Water Park!! 15 minutes to the sunsets at Pine Island, boating and fishing!! Less than 10 minutes to the Suncoast Parkway for quick and easy access to Tampa International Airport and for all the fun that Tampa Bay has to offer!! 1 hour + to TOP US BEACHES!! 1.5 hours to Disney World and Universal Studios and all the theme parks!!

5. 2026-04-28
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1249 chars)

   BRAND NEW HOME!! PAVED ROAD and DRIVEWAY!! NO HOA!! NO FLOOD!! 4 bedrooms + 2 bathrooms on nice lot on a small lake with NO REAR NEIGHBORS!! Move-in Ready!! Open Floor Plan - LARGE HOME with 1,832 sq feet of living space!! Everything is BRAND NEW. .. NEW WELL, NEW SEPTIC, NEW HOME with NEW roof, NEW AC, NEW Stainless Steel Appliances, NEW cabinets, NEW countertops, NEW flooring, NEW front deck, NEW back deck, NEW landscaping, NEW wood privacy fencing on the side!! Everything is NEW! Comes is a 7 year transferrable warranty to the buyer! Everything is brand new. .. all you have to do is move-in and decorate!! Cash, conventional, FHA, and VA accepted. Call to come see it today!! Close to everything!! Shoppes, restaurants, hospitals, schools. .. everything!! Less than 10 minutes to kayaking, paddle-boarding, and swimming with the manatees in the clear Weeki Wachee River or enjoying a day at Buccaneer Bay Water Park!! 15 minutes to the sunsets at Pine Island, boating and fishing!! Less than 10 minutes to the Suncoast Parkway for quick and easy access to Tampa International Airport and for all the fun that Tampa Bay has to offer!! 1 hour + to TOP US BEACHES!! 1.5 hours to Disney World and Universal Studios and all the theme parks!!

6. 2026-04-19
   listed $269,000 Active 1249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1249 chars)

   BRAND NEW HOME!! PAVED ROAD and DRIVEWAY!! NO HOA!! NO FLOOD!! 4 bedrooms + 2 bathrooms on nice lot on a small lake with NO REAR NEIGHBORS!! Move-in Ready!! Open Floor Plan - LARGE HOME with 1,832 sq feet of living space!! Everything is BRAND NEW. .. NEW WELL, NEW SEPTIC, NEW HOME with NEW roof, NEW AC, NEW Stainless Steel Appliances, NEW cabinets, NEW countertops, NEW flooring, NEW front deck, NEW back deck, NEW landscaping, NEW wood privacy fencing on the side!! Everything is NEW! Comes is a 7 year transferrable warranty to the buyer! Everything is brand new. .. all you have to do is move-in and decorate!! Cash, conventional, FHA, and VA accepted. Call to come see it today!! Close to everything!! Shoppes, restaurants, hospitals, schools. .. everything!! Less than 10 minutes to kayaking, paddle-boarding, and swimming with the manatees in the clear Weeki Wachee River or enjoying a day at Buccaneer Bay Water Park!! 15 minutes to the sunsets at Pine Island, boating and fishing!! Less than 10 minutes to the Suncoast Parkway for quick and easy access to Tampa International Airport and for all the fun that Tampa Bay has to offer!! 1 hour + to TOP US BEACHES!! 1.5 hours to Disney World and Universal Studios and all the theme parks!!

7. 2026-04-18
   listed $269,000 Active
8. 2022-02-28
   soldstatus $10,000 109-char remark

   Show marketing remark (109 chars)

   Nice vacant waterfront lot waiting for you to build your dream home. Seller is motivated make an offer today!

9. 2021-10-04
   listed $19,900 109-char remark

   Show marketing remark (109 chars)

   Nice vacant waterfront lot waiting for you to build your dream home. Seller is motivated make an offer today!

10. 1986-02-01
    soldstatus $15,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,367
• − Management: −$2,367
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$3,418
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$820
• After-tax cash flow: $1,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Weeki Wachee

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Weeki Wachee, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 18,280
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,337
• Household income: $58,596
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.51%
• Current HPI: 276.2229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1669.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — HCAR
• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Listed $269,000 HCAR
• 2026-04-18 Listed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $10,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2021-10-04 Listed $19,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 1986-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $466 · +27.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.