5589 County Road 469 · Jones Creek, TX 77422

$149,199

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 424 Days on market

Built 1997 0.56 ac lot $108/sqft · 15% below area Est $176k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

LARGE HALF ACRE LOT! Discover the tranquility of this three-bedroom, one-bathroom home nestled on more than half an acre (24,219 sqft.) in the Brazoria area. The living room offers ample space for gatherings with friends and family, while separate sleeping quarters ensure privacy and comfort. New subflooring installed in living room with new flooring in both kitchen and living room area. A functional kitchen awaits your culinary adventures, and an extended front porch provides a serene spot to relax. Situated on half an acre of land, this property provides you with so much land value and it invites you to experience its charm firsthand. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Extended front porch
• New flooring

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• NEW SUBFLOORING
• NEW FLOORING
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• EXTENDED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (26.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.8% in Jones Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sweeny ISD (town): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #480 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 424 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 12999% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,942 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 424 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,377
• List price: $149,199
• Delta: -15.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5516 County Road 469	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,566 (+14%)	14mo	$385,000	$246	56
5216 County Road 469 #10	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-9%)	11mo	$135,000	$107	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $67,385
• Equity at exit: $134,410

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $210,125
• Equity at exit: $289,861

Cash invested: $41,776 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77422

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$782
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,139/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,835

Max offer price $109,942

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,300
• Closing costs: $4,476
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,199 Active 424 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,199 Active 423 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,199 Active 422 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,199 Active 421 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,199 Active 420 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,199 Active 418 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,199 Active 417 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,199 Active 414 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,199 Active 413 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,199 Active 412 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,199 Active 411 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,199 Active 408 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,199 Active 407 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,199 Active 406 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,199 Active 405 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,199 Active 404 DOM
17. 2026-02-19
    price $149,199 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    LARGE HALF ACRE LOT! Discover the tranquility of this three-bedroom, one-bathroom home nestled on more than half an acre (24,219 sqft.) in the Brazoria area. The living room offers ample space for gatherings with friends and family, while separate sleeping quarters ensure privacy and comfort. New subflooring installed in living room with new flooring in both kitchen and living room area. A functional kitchen awaits your culinary adventures, and an extended front porch provides a serene spot to relax. Situated on half an acre of land, this property provides you with so much land value and it invites you to experience its charm firsthand. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

18. 2025-07-14
    historical $1,139
19. 2025-05-28
    listed $1,139
20. 2025-04-21
    listed $155,199 Active 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    LARGE HALF ACRE LOT! Discover the tranquility of this three-bedroom, one-bathroom home nestled on more than half an acre (24,219 sqft.) in the Brazoria area. The living room offers ample space for gatherings with friends and family, while separate sleeping quarters ensure privacy and comfort. New subflooring installed in living room with new flooring in both kitchen and living room area. A functional kitchen awaits your culinary adventures, and an extended front porch provides a serene spot to relax. Situated on half an acre of land, this property provides you with so much land value and it invites you to experience its charm firsthand. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

21. 2024-07-06
    historical
22. 2024-06-20
    historical
23. 2022-06-14
    price $166,999
24. 2022-06-14
    listed $466,999 Active
25. 2017-03-14
    soldstatus
26. 2017-03-13
    soldstatus
27. 2017-03-13
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2017-02-07
    status Pending
29. 2017-01-25
    status Option Pending
30. 2016-09-01
    listed $100,000 Active
31. 2016-08-31
    listed $100,000
32. 2014-06-17
    soldstatus
33. 2014-06-16
    soldstatus
34. 2014-06-16
    soldstatus
35. 2014-06-16
    soldstatus Sold
36. 2014-06-06
    status Pending
37. 2014-05-15
    status Active
38. 2014-05-06
    status Option Pending
39. 2014-04-04
    listed $79,900 Active
40. 2014-04-02
    listed $79,900
41. 2010-03-03
    soldstatus
42. 2010-02-26
    soldstatus
43. 2010-02-10
    historical
44. 2009-10-15
    listed $69,900
45. 2006-12-04
    soldstatus
46. 2005-06-30
    historical
47. 2005-04-11
    listed $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,139 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,730 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$592/yr (+$49/mo · 27.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,139
• − Insurance: −$5,864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − Depreciation: −$4,340
• Taxable loss: −$5,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,210
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweeny ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841970
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,607
• Composite: 31.49/100
• National rank: #5975
• State rank: #480 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jones Creek

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #12077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,548

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.41%
• Current HPI: 296.0632
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+129.9% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $149,199 HARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Rental Removed $1,139 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-05-28 Listed for Rent $1,139 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-04-21 Listed $155,199 HARMLS
• 2024-07-06 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-06-14 Price Changed $166,999 HARMLS
• 2022-06-14 Listed $466,999 HARMLS
• 2017-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-03-13 Sold (MLS) — BCBR
• 2017-02-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-01-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-09-01 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2016-08-31 Listed $100,000 BCBR
• 2014-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-06-16 Sold (MLS) — BCBR
• 2014-06-16 Sold (MLS) — BCBR
• 2014-06-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-04 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2014-04-02 Listed $79,900 BCBR
• 2010-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-02-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-10-15 Listed $69,900 HARMLS
• 2006-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-04-11 Listed $64,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,139 · -26.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.