201 Bedford St · Moberly, MO 65270

$15,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1920 6,450 sqft lot $9/sqft · 89% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Moberly is a true fixer-upper with potential for the right buyer. The property will require extensive repairs and renovations and is best suited for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a rehab project. Opportunity to reimagine the space and add value. Property is being sold AS-IS, cash only.

Key facts

• 6,450 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved road access; Lot roughly 43 x 150

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $999 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 86.2% vs local median 4.5% in Moberly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #3,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Moberly (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #246 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Park Elem. (230 students, 65% FRL); Moberly Middle (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #215 of 391 statewide, top 56%, 497 students, 59% FRL); Moberly Sr. High (math 2% / reading 52%, grade F, #417 of 521 statewide, top 80%, 691 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $14,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 86.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 285.36%
• DSCR: 13.70
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,408
• List price: $15,000
• Delta: -86.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
911 W Reed St	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (-1%)	2mo	$140,000	$88	76
953 W Rollins St	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,733 (+7%)	3mo	$129,900	$75	73
618 Fort St	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,589 (-2%)	7mo	$172,500	$109	70
808 W Reed St	0.21mi	4/1.0	1,768 (+9%)	6mo	$129,900	$73	68
621 Gilman St	0.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,754 (+8%)	3mo	$160,000	$91	62
1316 Concannon St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (0%)	3mo	$144,900	$90	60
641 Park Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (+5%)	6mo	$233,000	$137	60
430 S 4th St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,518 (-6%)	1mo	$39,500	$26	60
529 W Logan St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,450 (-10%)	7mo	$154,900	$107	56
700 S 5th St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,734 (+7%)	8mo	$129,000	$74	54
501 W Longview St	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,738 (+7%)	0mo	$244,900	$141	45
602 Gilman St	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,378 (-15%)	7mo	$170,000	$123	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.57×
• Total profit: $61,208
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 33.22×
• Total profit: $135,318
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65270

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,407 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $331/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $999

Break-even live

Break-even rent $142

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $15,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $22,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $22,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $22,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $22,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $22,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $22,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $22,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $22,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $22,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $22,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $22,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $22,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $22,000 Active 330-char remark
16. 2025-03-07
    historical
17. 2025-03-03
    listed $20,000 Active
18. 2025-03-03
    listed $20,000 Active
19. 2015-04-02
    soldstatus $18,000
20. 2000-04-06
    soldstatus
21. 1981-03-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $331 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $331 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$331
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,350
• − Management: −$1,350
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $12,497
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,999
• After-tax cash flow: $8,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moberly
• NCES district ID: 2921100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,160
• Composite: 27.35/100
• National rank: #6984
• State rank: #246 of 324 in MO

Livability — Moberly

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #3045

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moberly, MO
• Population (ZIP): 16,762

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,596 people
• By 2030: 24,213 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 23,184 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 22,081 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 18,994 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 15,070 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 23.3% · R 75.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+36.6 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.15%
• Current HPI: 199.9743
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $15,000 CBORMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $22,000 CBORMLS
• 2025-03-07 Delisted — CBORMLS
• 2025-03-03 Listed $20,000 RCBR
• 2025-03-03 Listed $20,000 CBORMLS
• 2015-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $331 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.