2410 Lancaster Dr SE #1010 · Salem, OR 97317

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · Manufactured · 175 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $128/sqft · 41% above area Est $131k · 41% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful brand-new home on a corner lot! This 2025 Palm Harbor home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a spacious open concept! As you step inside you are welcomed with a bright open floor plan with tons of windows to bring in lots of natural light. The living room is bright and high ceilings! The kitchen has stainless steel appliances, a large farmhouse sink and nice kitchen island for additional countertop space. The dining room is surrounded with nice big windows! The master bedroom is spacious with 2 large closets, and the master bathroom has dual sinks, a garden tub and walk-in shower. Home also has a heat pump! Outside you have a carport, storage shed, porch and low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Large closets
• Farmhouse sink

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• LARGE CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $162,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.34%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,000
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: 41.15%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #962	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-3%)	8mo	$75,000	$53	83
2232 42nd Ave SE #704	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-11%)	1mo	$58,000	$45	72
3236 Turner Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-0%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	62
3100 Turner Rd SE #625	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-5%)	0mo	$235,000	$171	60
3180 Turner Rd SE	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-0%)	5mo	$25,000	$17	57
3100 Turner Rd SE #206	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-0%)	8mo	$195,000	$135	56
3100 Turner (620) Rd SE	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	54
3100 Turner Rd SE #620	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	54
3100 Turner Rd S #220	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-5%)	1mo	$199,500	$146	54
3100 Turner Rd SE #311	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	10mo	$155,000	$113	52
3100 Turner Rd SE #424	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-5%)	10mo	$217,500	$159	46
3340 Turner Rd SE	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+12%)	3mo	$128,000	$79	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-24,161
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,349
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97317

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,774/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2728 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 2728-14 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	43d	1	0.13mi
4243 Campbell Dr SE Unit 4243 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	936	$1,550	$1.66	13d	1	0.38mi
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,099	$2.27	13d	1	0.49mi
1447 Connecticut St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,675	$2.13	43d	1	0.55mi
1569 Whitaker Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,299	$2.46	13d	1	0.87mi
1029 Raffon Ct SE Unit AR7171-3 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	927	$1,700	$1.83	23d	1	0.90mi
4976 Turquoise Ave SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,495	$1.63	13d	5	0.95mi
4776 Buffalo Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1369	$2,150	$1.57	43d	1	1.02mi
4807 Chinook Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1104	$2,200	$1.99	13d	1	1.14mi
5192 Caplinger Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,802	$1.94	13d	25	1.25mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,958	$2.03	13d	26	1.26mi
3828 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	13d	1	1.29mi
3822 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	23d	1	1.29mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4435-201 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	888	$1,525	$1.72	23d	1	1.47mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4437-206 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	932	$1,525	$1.64	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,900 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,900 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,900 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-02-24
    status Active 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    Beautiful brand-new home on a corner lot! This 2025 Palm Harbor home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a spacious open concept! As you step inside you are welcomed with a bright open floor plan with tons of windows to bring in lots of natural light. The living room is bright and high ceilings! The kitchen has stainless steel appliances, a large farmhouse sink and nice kitchen island for additional countertop space. The dining room is surrounded with nice big windows! The master bedroom is spacious with 2 large closets, and the master bathroom has dual sinks, a garden tub and walk-in shower. Home also has a heat pump! Outside you have a carport, storage shed, porch and low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

16. 2026-01-14
    historical 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    Beautiful brand-new home on a corner lot! This 2025 Palm Harbor home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a spacious open concept! As you step inside you are welcomed with a bright open floor plan with tons of windows to bring in lots of natural light. The living room is bright and high ceilings! The kitchen has stainless steel appliances, a large farmhouse sink and nice kitchen island for additional countertop space. The dining room is surrounded with nice big windows! The master bedroom is spacious with 2 large closets, and the master bathroom has dual sinks, a garden tub and walk-in shower. Home also has a heat pump! Outside you have a carport, storage shed, porch and low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

17. 2025-11-14
    listed $189,900 Active 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    Beautiful brand-new home on a corner lot! This 2025 Palm Harbor home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a spacious open concept! As you step inside you are welcomed with a bright open floor plan with tons of windows to bring in lots of natural light. The living room is bright and high ceilings! The kitchen has stainless steel appliances, a large farmhouse sink and nice kitchen island for additional countertop space. The dining room is surrounded with nice big windows! The master bedroom is spacious with 2 large closets, and the master bathroom has dual sinks, a garden tub and walk-in shower. Home also has a heat pump! Outside you have a carport, storage shed, porch and low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,774
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$1,840
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$442
• After-tax cash flow: $1,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new manufactured home is in excellent condition with a spacious open floor plan and modern amenities. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and hardwood flooring to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing to potential buyers
• Both Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Install a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing to potential buyers ↑
• Both Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 25,966
• Household income: $84,393
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.73%
• Current HPI: 307.3264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-14 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-14 Listed $189,900 Zillow