3235 Mission Riv · San Antonio, TX 78245

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2020 4,791 sqft lot Est $176k · 16% over $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Garland Plan - This Cozy 3 bedroom plan comes with Blinds and sprinkler system front & back yard. Schedule a viewing with one of our agents TODAY!!!

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $120 quarterly; Association transfer fee $250; Subdivision: Stoney Creek

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water system; Garbage service (Metro Garbage)
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family home; Built by DR HORTON; Approximately 6 years old
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Siding exterior; Paved streets with curbs and sidewalks; Streetlights; Pool and park/playground in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (16 x 9); Gas cooking; Stove/Range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet, ceiling fan, and full bath; Bedroom 2 (12 x 10); Bedroom 3 (12 x 13); Master bedroom dimensions 12 x 13
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination and single vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ground-level living with no steps; One living area; Breakfast bar; Utility room inside; Attic access only; High-speed internet available; All window coverings remain; Smoke alarm; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($150/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Luckey Ranch El (math 47% / reading 50%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 866 students, 67% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 1176 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,576 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,368
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11726 Wentwood Vale	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-1%)	5mo	$265,950	$230	83
11818 Wentwood Vale	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+10%)	6mo	$272,950	$213	72
3407 Angus Xing	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,299 (+11%)	4mo	$215,000	$166	67
12121 La Cuchilla	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,189 (+2%)	1mo	$166,999	$140	62
12129 La Cuchilla	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,189 (+2%)	2mo	$169,999	$143	62
12149 La Cuchilla	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,189 (+2%)	3mo	$187,999	$158	61
12165 La Cuchilla	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,189 (+2%)	3mo	$172,999	$145	60
12046 La Cuchilla	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,189 (+2%)	3mo	$166,999	$140	60
12026 La Cuchilla	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,189 (+2%)	5mo	$187,999	$158	59
12014 La Cuchilla	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,189 (+2%)	6mo	$170,999	$144	58
12062 La Cuchilla	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,189 (+2%)	6mo	$167,999	$141	58
12144 La Cuchilla	0.69mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,013 (-13%)	4mo	$152,999	$151	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-37,496
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-51,232
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78245

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1176
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,805/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,710

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $70	+0% $12	+5% $-46	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-56	+0% $12	+5% $81	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $65	base $12	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3303 Mission Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,850	$1.24	46d	1	0.03mi
3232 Onion Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,495	$1.28	46d	1	0.04mi
11902 Mulberry Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,647	$1.17	46d	1	0.06mi
3203 Onion Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,750	$1.24	1d	1	0.10mi
12010 Mulberry Crk Unit NA San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,850	$1.43	17d	1	0.11mi
12126 Sampson Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,895	$1.27	26d	1	0.29mi
12141 Pease Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,595	$1.14	5d	1	0.31mi
14618 Fowler Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,776	$1.40	17d	1	0.72mi
11727 Black Rose San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,595	$1.21	1d	1	0.81mi
11752 Red Pheasant San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,595	$1.28	26d	1	0.89mi
11806 Red Pheasant San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,550	$1.24	6d	1	0.89mi
11735 Midnight Rain San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1417	$1,595	$1.13	22d	1	0.92mi
12510 Galatea San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,575	$1.30	20d	1	1.25mi
12515 Antilia San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,800	$1.28	13d	1	1.28mi
12627 Corona Borealis San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,680	$1.19	46d	1	1.30mi
13078 Cygnus San Antonio, TX	4.0	1.0–3.0	1662	$2,026	$1.22	0d	6	1.40mi
5607 Forest Cyn San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1097	$1,480	$1.35	46d	1	1.46mi
11459 Coral Cyn San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1097	$1,500	$1.37	26d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $205,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $205,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 New 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 New 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 New 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 468-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $205,000 New 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,805 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,946/yr (+$162/mo · 107.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,805
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 96,015
• Household income: $90,029
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2466.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.31%
• Current HPI: 234.7931
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.02%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $205,000 LERA
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $220,000 LERA
• 2024-07-30 Listed $230,000 LERA
• 2020-08-14 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2020-07-06 Pending — LERA
• 2020-06-02 Price Changed $188,300 LERA
• 2020-06-02 Relisted — LERA
• 2020-05-01 Pending — LERA
• 2020-01-14 Listed $186,300 LERA

Property tax history

-16.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,805 · -58.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.