8038 Hemlock Ave · California City, CA 93505

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1958 10,018 sqft lot Est $338k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 1,744 sq ft single-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 1 3/4 bath, oversized 3 car workshop with a paid-off solar system located on a 10,018 sq ft lot . This property also includes a comfortable living room, bonus room, and a dedicated storage space--providing plenty of flexibility for a variety of needs. Circular concreted driveway A standout feature is the oversized detached 3-car workshop, complete with 2 14 ft roll-up garage doors and RV access perfect for hobbyists, extra storage, or a dedicated workspace. The expansive lot showcases extensive concrete work, offering ample room for parking, recreational vehicles, or outdoor projects with minimal upkeep.

Key facts

• Rv access
• 0.23 acre lot
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• OVERSIZED DETACHED WORKSHOP
• PAID-OFF SOLAR SYSTEM
• CIRCULAR CONCRETED DRIVEWAY
• RV ACCESS
• EXTENSIVE CONCRETE WORK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.2% in California City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $250k implies a 747% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,288 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.13%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $338,336
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8038 Hemlock Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,744 (0%)	1mo	$256,250	$147	94
21000 79th	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,816 (+4%)	2mo	$217,500	$120	68
8348 Fernwood Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,577 (-10%)	1mo	$255,000	$162	68
20312 Graham St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-13%)	0mo	$315,000	$208	66
8300 Satinwood	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+2%)	0mo	$265,000	$149	65
8633 Hickory Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,731 (-1%)	2mo	$355,000	$205	63
8348 Lime	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-12%)	1mo	$265,150	$173	60
8225 Peach Ave	0.47mi	3/4.0	1,629 (-7%)	0mo	$335,000	$206	59
8325 Jacarada	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (-11%)	3mo	$299,990	$194	59
8400 Dogwood Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-12%)	3mo	$300,000	$195	58
20925 79th St	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-8%)	3mo	$331,500	$207	58
8412 Catalpa Ave	0.46mi	3/3.0	1,973 (+13%)	2mo	$290,000	$147	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $153,076
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.48×
• Total profit: $453,627
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,242/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,922

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $253	+0% $183	+5% $112	+10% $41
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $98	+0% $183	+5% $268	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $308	-0.5pp $246	base $183	+0.5pp $118	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20425 81st St California City, CA	4.0	3.0	2215	$2,900	$1.31	19d	1	0.10mi
8100 Fernwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,850	$1.38	24d	1	0.14mi
8160 Kalmia Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,795	$1.41	24d	1	0.26mi
20300 Graham St California City, CA	4.0	2.5	2016	$2,150	$1.07	24d	1	0.27mi
20673 Medio St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,075	$1.23	24d	1	0.34mi
20961 83rd St Unit 6 California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	24d	1	0.51mi
21032 79th St California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1228	$2,100	$1.71	24d	1	0.56mi
20312 Dean Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1742	$1,975	$1.13	15d	1	0.58mi
8560 Nipa Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,850	$1.41	15d	1	0.63mi
8651 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	4d	1	0.68mi
8648 Lime Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,400	$1.64	24d	1	0.68mi
7343 Dogwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,250	$1.73	24d	1	0.73mi
8312 Tamarack Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1539	$1,900	$1.23	24d	1	0.73mi
8124 Underwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,850	$1.23	24d	1	0.74mi
20321 88th St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,100	$1.79	24d	1	0.77mi
8173 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,150	$1.45	3d	1	0.78mi
7733 Walpole Ave Unit A California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	24d	1	0.78mi
8801 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,600	$1.69	24d	1	0.80mi
8260 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,000	$1.49	3d	1	0.82mi
8512 Tamarack Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,875	$1.25	24d	1	0.84mi
20001 Airway Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,400	$2.29	24d	1	0.85mi
7317 California City Blvd California City, CA	3.0	1.5	1228	$1,725	$1.40	19d	1	0.86mi
8449 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,695	$1.39	0d	1	0.86mi
8848 Oleander Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	0.92mi
8816 Fuchsia Ave Unit PASSTHROUGH B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,550	$1.44	15d	1	1.07mi
7113 Victor Pl Unit B California City, CA	3.0	2.5	1240	$1,600	$1.29	24d	1	1.15mi
21231 Corwin St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	24d	1	1.17mi
9213 Holly Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,900	$1.42	4d	1	1.20mi
9000 Underwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,900	$1.23	24d	1	1.22mi
9225 Peach Ave Unit A California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	24d	1	1.31mi
8849 Glade Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,380	$1.50	11d	1	1.34mi
6761 California City Blvd California City, CA	4.0	2.5	1770	$2,500	$1.41	24d	1	1.36mi
8307 Charles Pl California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,750	$1.17	15d	1	1.39mi
8332 Rea Ave California City, CA	4.0	3.0	1861	$2,500	$1.34	4d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $249,900 Active
3. 1987-06-22
   soldstatus $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,242 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,899 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$657/yr (+$55/mo · 52.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,242
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$2,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$494
• After-tax cash flow: $2,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+747.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $249,900 AVMLS
• 1987-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $29,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,242 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.