Polaris Plan · Fort Worth, TX 76179

$311,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,589 sqft · SingleFamily · 342 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Updated kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPGRADED CABINETS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

🏗️ New construction. The $311,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $317,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1050 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 342 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,932 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 342 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,990
• List price: $311,990
• Delta: -1.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12748 Haymarket	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+3%)	2mo	$302,490	$185	90
12641 Big Ranch Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+3%)	5mo	$317,990	$194	84
12729 Big Rnch	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-10%)	4mo	$270,990	$190	77
12701 Big Ranch Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-11%)	8mo	$306,990	$216	70
12737 Big Rnch	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (+15%)	1mo	$347,990	$190	67
12637 Big Ranch Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (+15%)	6mo	$302,000	$165	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-67,926
• Equity at exit: $47,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-90,227
• Equity at exit: $27,494

Cash invested: $89,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76179

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1050
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,529 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$397 /mo · $4,770/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,782

Max offer price $289,137

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,498
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12737 Big Ranch Rd Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,499	$1.37	1d	1	0.08mi
12733 Big Ranch Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,599	$1.59	43d	1	0.09mi
13000 N Saginaw Blvd Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1061	$2,521	$2.38	1d	11	0.38mi
12356 Hulson Trl Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	2221	$2,600	$1.17	11d	1	1.36mi
12424 Iveson Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1902	$2,445	$1.29	43d	1	1.43mi
1637 Shadow Hawk Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,995	$1.32	18d	1	1.47mi
1540 Western Willow Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$1,694	$0.95	24d	1	1.48mi
12376 Iveson Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$2,525	$1.34	7d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $311,990 Active 342 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $311,990 Active 341 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $311,990 Active 340 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $311,990 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $311,990 Active 337 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $311,990 Active 333 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $311,990 Active 332 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $311,990 Active 331 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $311,990 Active 328 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $311,990 Active 327 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $311,990 Active 326 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $311,990 Active 325 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $311,990 Active 324 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    price $311,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

15. 2026-03-03
    price $309,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

16. 2026-02-07
    price $307,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

17. 2026-01-21
    price $309,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

18. 2026-01-03
    price $307,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

19. 2025-12-18
    price $304,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

20. 2025-12-03
    price $305,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

21. 2025-10-31
    price $302,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

22. 2025-10-30
    price $312,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

23. 2025-10-30
    price $302,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

24. 2025-09-24
    price $312,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

25. 2025-08-15
    price $332,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

26. 2025-07-12
    listed $347,990 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,812
• − Property taxes: −$4,770
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,428
• − Management: −$2,428
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$7,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,903
• After-tax cash flow: $-490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. Painting and landscaping improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 80,090
• Household income: $107,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1494.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.12%
• Current HPI: 237.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $311,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $305,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $312,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $312,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $332,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-12 Listed $347,990 Zillow