4420 Carter Rd #41 · St. Augustine Shores, FL 32086

$175,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 870 sqft · Condo public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1982 $317/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

END UNIT! Welcome to this excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors!! This well-maintained 2 Bed/ 1.5 Bath unit features all new carpet, fresh interior paint, and updated appliances (2025), offering a clean, move-in-ready feel. Enjoy added privacy and natural beauty as the home backs up to a peaceful common area shaded by mature oak trees, creating a relaxing backdrop right outside your door. Conveniently located just minutes from Publix, shopping, dining, and I-95, this property offers easy access for commuting while still providing a quiet setting. With strong rental income potential, this is a great option whether you're looking to expand your investment portfolio or settle

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Mature oak trees
• New carpet

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• PEACEFUL COMMON AREA
• MATURE OAK TREES
• QUIET SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Minimum lease term: 6 months
• HOA & community: HOA fee $317 monthly; HOA covers exterior maintenance, master policy, sewer, termite bond, and trash collection; HOA restrictions apply (see documents)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: County water; Sewer
• Home design: Ground-level entry; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: HOA-maintained community

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (2nd level) approximately 14 by 12; Second bedroom approximately 9 by 12
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub/shower combo; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and tile flooring; Ceiling fans; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in St. Augustine Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otis A. Mason Elementary School (math 76% / reading 60%, grade B+, #425 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 719 students, 45% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 20% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 400 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $175k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,180 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.05%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-37,138
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-52,706
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32086

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,407/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$317
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,804

Max offer price $160,180

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4420 Carter Rd #43 Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	1.5	870	$1,450	$1.67	23d	1	0.00mi
3884 Osprey Cir Unit B St. Augustine, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,250	$1.58	23d	1	0.87mi
3884 Osprey Cir Unit B St. Augustine, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,250	$1.58	17d	1	0.87mi
68 Angelo Ln Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,645	$1.83	13d	1	0.98mi
146 Phoenetia Dr St Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,900	$1.82	3d	1	1.06mi
250 Brainard Dr Unit A St. Augustine, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $317 · $3,804/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $175,000 Active
15. 2025-08-12
    historical $1,500
16. 2025-06-21
    listed $1,500
17. 2007-12-07
    soldstatus $89,000
18. 2007-05-18
    soldstatus $2,861,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,407 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,407
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,630
• − Management: −$1,630
• − HOA: −$3,804
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$929
• After-tax cash flow: $-78/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Augustine Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,855
• Household income: $76,512
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 634.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.21%
• Current HPI: 306.2813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-93.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $175,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2025-08-12 Rental Removed $1,500 SASJC
• 2025-06-21 Listed for Rent $1,500 SASJC
• 2007-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $2,861,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,407 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.