35444 Forest Manor Ave · Watson, LA 70706

$285,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,051 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,143 sqft lot $36/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing The Ledoux, a thoughtfully designed single-story new construction home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a covered patio with 2,058 sq ft. The Ledoux is perfect for homebuyers seeking open-concept living, modern finishes, and everyday functionality in Denham Springs, La. From the moment you step inside the welcoming foyer, you're drawn into the heart of the home, where the kitchen, dining area, and living room flow together seamlessly. This bright and open layout is ideal for entertaining, family time, and relaxed daily living. Large windows bring in natural light, while easy access to the covered back patio creates a smooth indoor-outdoor connection--perfect for morning coffee, weekend grilling, or evening unwinding. The modern kitchen features a large center island overlooking the living space, a walk-in pantry, and a dedicated laundry room nearby for added convenience. Designed with both style and durability in mind, the kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, including stove, microwave hood, and dishwasher, also paired with beautiful 3 cm granite countertops throughout, making it as functional as it is stylish. The primary bedroom suite is privately positioned and offers a true retreat, complete with an oversized bedroom, a spacious walk-in closet, and an en suite bathroom with dual vanities, a separate soaking tub and shower, and a thoughtfully designed layout for comfort and ease. Three additional secondary bedrooms are located toward the front of the home, along with a full second bathroom, providing flexible space for family members, guests, home offices, or hobby rooms. Every Ledoux home also includes America's Smart Home(r) with our HOME IS CONNECTED(r) base package. Disclaimer: final options, finishes, colors, etc. are subject to change until home is finished.

Key facts

• 7,143 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

🏗️ New construction. The $285,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,446.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $286k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#50 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 344 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,446
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35453 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,022 (-1%)	1mo	$290,900	$144	86
35456 Forest Manor Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,825 (-11%)	1mo	$272,900	$150	81
35432 Forest Manor Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,825 (-11%)	2mo	$268,900	$147	80
35438 Forest Manor Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,825 (-11%)	3mo	$276,915	$152	79
35441 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,825 (-11%)	2mo	$274,900	$151	79
35414 Forest Manor Ave	0.00mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-10%)	2mo	$271,900	$146	77
35618 Vandora Dr	0.19mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,022 (-1%)	3mo	$286,900	$142	77
35387 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-10%)	3mo	$270,130	$146	75
35602 Grovemont Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,087 (+2%)	0mo	$268,000	$128	73
35570 Vandora Dr	0.20mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-10%)	3mo	$266,795	$144	67
35570 Vandora Dr	0.20mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-10%)	3mo	$265,900	$143	67
35576 Vandora Dr	0.20mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-10%)	3mo	$270,900	$146	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-56,769
• Equity at exit: $44,648

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,885
• Equity at exit: $25,891

Cash invested: $83,845 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,570
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,492/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,665

Max offer price $280,576

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $-27	+0% $-130	+5% $-234	+10% $-337
Rent	-10% $-328	-5% $-229	+0% $-130	+5% $-32	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-54	base $-130	+0.5pp $-208	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,862
• Closing costs: $8,983
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35648 Avery Dr Denham Springs, LA	5.0	2.0	2077	$2,500	$1.20	21d	1	0.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $285,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (1838 chars)

   Introducing The Ledoux, a thoughtfully designed single-story new construction home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a covered patio with 2,058 sq ft. The Ledoux is perfect for homebuyers seeking open-concept living, modern finishes, and everyday functionality in Denham Springs, La. From the moment you step inside the welcoming foyer, you're drawn into the heart of the home, where the kitchen, dining area, and living room flow together seamlessly. This bright and open layout is ideal for entertaining, family time, and relaxed daily living. Large windows bring in natural light, while easy access to the covered back patio creates a smooth indoor-outdoor connection--perfect for morning coffee, weekend grilling, or evening unwinding. The modern kitchen features a large center island overlooking the living space, a walk-in pantry, and a dedicated laundry room nearby for added convenience. Designed with both style and durability in mind, the kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, including stove, microwave hood, and dishwasher, also paired with beautiful 3 cm granite countertops throughout, making it as functional as it is stylish. The primary bedroom suite is privately positioned and offers a true retreat, complete with an oversized bedroom, a spacious walk-in closet, and an en suite bathroom with dual vanities, a separate soaking tub and shower, and a thoughtfully designed layout for comfort and ease. Three additional secondary bedrooms are located toward the front of the home, along with a full second bathroom, providing flexible space for family members, guests, home offices, or hobby rooms. Every Ledoux home also includes America's Smart Home(r) with our HOME IS CONNECTED(r) base package. Disclaimer: final options, finishes, colors, etc. are subject to change until home is finished.

3. 2026-03-30
   listed $285,900 1838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1838 chars)

   Introducing The Ledoux, a thoughtfully designed single-story new construction home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a covered patio with 2,058 sq ft. The Ledoux is perfect for homebuyers seeking open-concept living, modern finishes, and everyday functionality in Denham Springs, La. From the moment you step inside the welcoming foyer, you're drawn into the heart of the home, where the kitchen, dining area, and living room flow together seamlessly. This bright and open layout is ideal for entertaining, family time, and relaxed daily living. Large windows bring in natural light, while easy access to the covered back patio creates a smooth indoor-outdoor connection--perfect for morning coffee, weekend grilling, or evening unwinding. The modern kitchen features a large center island overlooking the living space, a walk-in pantry, and a dedicated laundry room nearby for added convenience. Designed with both style and durability in mind, the kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, including stove, microwave hood, and dishwasher, also paired with beautiful 3 cm granite countertops throughout, making it as functional as it is stylish. The primary bedroom suite is privately positioned and offers a true retreat, complete with an oversized bedroom, a spacious walk-in closet, and an en suite bathroom with dual vanities, a separate soaking tub and shower, and a thoughtfully designed layout for comfort and ease. Three additional secondary bedrooms are located toward the front of the home, along with a full second bathroom, providing flexible space for family members, guests, home offices, or hobby rooms. Every Ledoux home also includes America's Smart Home(r) with our HOME IS CONNECTED(r) base package. Disclaimer: final options, finishes, colors, etc. are subject to change until home is finished.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,774
• − Property taxes: −$4,492
• − Insurance: −$1,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,711
• Taxable loss: −$6,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,609
• After-tax cash flow: $45/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story new construction home is in excellent condition with a good layout and modern finishes. It offers a great opportunity for an investor looking to make minor cosmetic improvements to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if needed) — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can boost resale value.
• Resale Bathroom updates (if needed) — Modernizing bathrooms can significantly increase resale value.
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if needed) — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can boost resale value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates (if needed) — Modernizing bathrooms can significantly increase resale value. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Watson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,621

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $285,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $285,900 GBRMLS