11865 Sunburst Marble Rd · Riverview, FL 33579

$399,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2019 6,928 sqft lot $12/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. The single-story North Carolina floor plan invites you in with an elegant foyer that leads into an open and natural flow between the dining room, family room and spacious kitchen, perfect for entertaining. The master suite connects seamlessly with the master bath and spacious walk-in closet. South Fork offers amenities such as a basketball court, swimming pool, playground and trails. Find your new home where the great outdoors await you as a neighbor. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built

Key facts

• Private pool
• Fenced yard
• Modern design

Tags

• PRIVATE POOL
• FENCED YARD
• MODERN DESIGN
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present
• HOA & community: Has HOA (FirstService Residential/Dennis Parks); HOA required, $150 annually ($12.50 monthly); Association amenities include pool and deed/vehicle/fence restrictions; Community features include playground, pool, sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19 x 20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing; Planned unit development (PD)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Lennar (model: North Carolina)
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and screened patios/porches including front porch, rear porch and patio; Screen enclosure; Sliding doors; Sidewalk; Vinyl fencing; Trees and landscaped yard; Paved asphalt road access; Located in an unincorporated area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Blinds on windows; Great room; Inside utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summerfield Crossings Elementary School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 869 students, 53% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 463 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $399k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $302,014 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.07%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-59,499
• Equity at exit: $88,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-69,722
• Equity at exit: $86,077

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,690/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,348

Max offer price $353,294

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-146	+0% $-259	+5% $-372	+10% $-485
Rent	-10% $-497	-5% $-378	+0% $-259	+5% $-139	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-58	-0.5pp $-157	base $-259	+0.5pp $-362	+1.0pp $-467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11838 Blackeyed Susan Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1816	$2,800	$1.54	22d	1	0.11mi
13515 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,800	$2.07	1d	1	0.29mi
13515 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$3,800	$2.05	19d	1	0.29mi
13456 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1752	$2,500	$1.43	19d	1	0.30mi
11716 Navajo Sandstone St Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2450	$2,900	$1.18	6d	1	0.49mi
11810 Tetrafin Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,750	$1.26	26d	1	0.51mi
13204 Waterleaf Garden Cir Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$3,600	$1.76	6d	1	0.56mi
13316 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2497	$3,200	$1.28	26d	1	0.68mi
13316 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2497	$3,200	$1.28	21d	1	0.68mi
11618 Ashton Field Ave Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2114	$2,400	$1.14	1d	1	0.68mi
11328 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	3.5	2532	$2,600	$1.03	12d	1	0.76mi
13263 Evening Sunset Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1959	$2,200	$1.12	6d	1	0.84mi
11519 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,600	$1.34	26d	1	0.87mi
11412 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	5.0	4.0	2523	$3,200	$1.27	26d	1	0.89mi
13465 Fladgate Mark Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,045	$1.32	1d	1	0.91mi
13465 Fladgate Mark Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,045	$1.32	6d	1	0.91mi
11427 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,310	$1.21	6d	1	0.95mi
11424 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,165	$1.18	14d	1	0.95mi
11736 Dumaine Valley Rd Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1670	$2,000	$1.20	16d	1	0.95mi
12036 Cardinal Flower Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2542	$2,590	$1.02	13d	1	0.95mi
11927 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2320	$3,100	$1.34	6d	1	0.98mi
12109 Night Jasmine Cv Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2364	$3,150	$1.33	12d	1	0.99mi
13185 Green Violet Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	1908	$2,459	$1.29	6d	1	1.03mi
11514 Brighton Knoll Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2759	$2,900	$1.05	14d	1	1.10mi
13655 Artesa Bell Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2351	$3,000	$1.28	0d	1	1.14mi
11211 Flora Springs Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2320	$2,723	$1.17	25d	1	1.19mi
13423 Beechberry Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2322	$2,800	$1.21	4d	1	1.21mi
11510 Harlan Eddy Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2351	$2,700	$1.15	26d	1	1.23mi
12201 Matchfield Way Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1522	$1,595	$1.05	19d	1	1.25mi
12330 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2357	$3,300	$1.40	6d	1	1.32mi
12026 Bridge Point Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,180	$1.22	26d	1	1.34mi
13305 Silvercreek Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1743	$2,099	$1.20	6d	1	1.36mi
13314 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,895	$1.29	16d	1	1.42mi
12019 Butler Woods Cir Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1693	$2,230	$1.32	4d	1	1.42mi
12008 Butler Woods Cir Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,215	$1.43	0d	1	1.45mi
12377 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2414	$2,800	$1.16	26d	1	1.46mi
12401 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,600	$1.78	1d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $399,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,690 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,690 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$3,690
• − Insurance: −$2,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,899
• − Management: −$2,899
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$10,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,434
• After-tax cash flow: $-671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+49.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-30 Listed $533,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-30 Sold (MLS) $264,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-22 Price Changed $264,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-08 Listed $266,790 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,690 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.