5100 Caribee Dr · Concord, MO 63128

$339,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1962 0.45 ac lot Est $360k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious home on almost a 1/2 acre, corner lot. Fantastic new kitchen just completed in August with new white cabinets, gorgeous glass backsplash and lovely quartz countertops. The kitchen is accessible from the living and dining rooms as well as the bonus room off the back of the house. The bonus room features walls of windows letting natural light fill the space, built-in cabinetry and new flooring. There are so many ways you could use this heated and cooled bonus room...virtual learning or office space, family room, playroom, reading porch, etc. There are three full baths in the home...one in the master, one in the main hall and one in the lower level. The lower level also has a fireplace and new flooring. The oversized garage is a welcome sight and offers a great storage area and laundry space.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($549/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#175 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trautwein Elem. (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #850 of 1,115 statewide, top 78%, 359 students, 42% FRL); Mehlville High School (math 26% / reading 54%, grade F, #243 of 521 statewide, top 47%, 1,440 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,278 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $360,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5100 Caribee Dr	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,060 (0%)	1mo	$339,900	$165	100
5356 Hamlin Ct	0.40mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,118 (+3%)	1mo	$449,900	$212	69
4942 Caribee Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	2,229 (+8%)	6mo	$325,000	$146	67
5122 Towne South Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	2,052 (-0%)	5mo	$335,000	$163	67
5161 Butler Bend Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,270 (+10%)	6mo	$529,900	$233	61
5023 Waringford Dr	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,919 (-7%)	2mo	$320,000	$167	58
4764 Brawley Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,759 (-15%)	3mo	$285,000	$162	57
5100 Melitta Dr	0.70mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,103 (+2%)	5mo	$355,000	$169	55
4839 Hursley Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (-12%)	2mo	$325,000	$180	50
4767 Towne South Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-13%)	3mo	$400,000	$222	45
5117 Melitta Dr	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,857 (-10%)	4mo	$325,000	$175	41
4801 Langtree Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,802 (-12%)	0mo	$390,000	$216	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-54,886
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-55,002
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63128

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,803 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,932/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,745

Max offer price $339,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5400 Tesson Rdg St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1412	$4,050	$2.87	2d	20	0.74mi
4446 Skyridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	2770	$2,706	$0.98	2d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $339,900
3. 2026-04-08
   listed $349,900 Active
4. 2026-04-07
   historical $349,900
5. 2022-04-28
   soldstatus $230,000
6. 2020-12-08
   soldstatus $247,000
7. 2020-11-20
   status Pending 832-char remark

   Show marketing remark (832 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious home on almost a 1/2 acre, corner lot. Fantastic new kitchen just completed in August with new white cabinets, gorgeous glass backsplash and lovely quartz countertops. The kitchen is accessible from the living and dining rooms as well as the bonus room off the back of the house. The bonus room features walls of windows letting natural light fill the space, built-in cabinetry and new flooring. There are so many ways you could use this heated and cooled bonus room...virtual learning or office space, family room, playroom, reading porch, etc. There are three full baths in the home...one in the master, one in the main hall and one in the lower level. The lower level also has a fireplace and new flooring. The oversized garage is a welcome sight and offers a great storage area and laundry space.

8. 2020-11-20
   soldstatus Closed 832-char remark

   Show marketing remark (832 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious home on almost a 1/2 acre, corner lot. Fantastic new kitchen just completed in August with new white cabinets, gorgeous glass backsplash and lovely quartz countertops. The kitchen is accessible from the living and dining rooms as well as the bonus room off the back of the house. The bonus room features walls of windows letting natural light fill the space, built-in cabinetry and new flooring. There are so many ways you could use this heated and cooled bonus room...virtual learning or office space, family room, playroom, reading porch, etc. There are three full baths in the home...one in the master, one in the main hall and one in the lower level. The lower level also has a fireplace and new flooring. The oversized garage is a welcome sight and offers a great storage area and laundry space.

9. 2020-10-27
   historical Active Under Contract 832-char remark

   Show marketing remark (832 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious home on almost a 1/2 acre, corner lot. Fantastic new kitchen just completed in August with new white cabinets, gorgeous glass backsplash and lovely quartz countertops. The kitchen is accessible from the living and dining rooms as well as the bonus room off the back of the house. The bonus room features walls of windows letting natural light fill the space, built-in cabinetry and new flooring. There are so many ways you could use this heated and cooled bonus room...virtual learning or office space, family room, playroom, reading porch, etc. There are three full baths in the home...one in the master, one in the main hall and one in the lower level. The lower level also has a fireplace and new flooring. The oversized garage is a welcome sight and offers a great storage area and laundry space.

10. 2020-10-02
    listed $249,900 Active 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious home on almost a 1/2 acre, corner lot. Fantastic new kitchen just completed in August with new white cabinets, gorgeous glass backsplash and lovely quartz countertops. The kitchen is accessible from the living and dining rooms as well as the bonus room off the back of the house. The bonus room features walls of windows letting natural light fill the space, built-in cabinetry and new flooring. There are so many ways you could use this heated and cooled bonus room...virtual learning or office space, family room, playroom, reading porch, etc. There are three full baths in the home...one in the master, one in the main hall and one in the lower level. The lower level also has a fireplace and new flooring. The oversized garage is a welcome sight and offers a great storage area and laundry space.

11. 2020-09-11
    price $249,900
12. 2019-04-03
    soldstatus $196,000
13. 2019-03-29
    soldstatus Closed
14. 2019-02-26
    status Pending
15. 2019-02-20
    listed $199,900 Active
16. 2018-10-01
    price $199,900
17. 2018-09-08
    price $210,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,932 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,297 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: +$365/yr (+$30/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$2,932
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,691
• − Management: −$2,691
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$5,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,274
• After-tax cash flow: $1,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Concord

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #9260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concord, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 30,540
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,540
• Household income: $92,359
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.34%
• Current HPI: 211.4603
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+61.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $339,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $349,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $349,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $247,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-20 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-27 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-02 Listed $249,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-11 Price Changed $249,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $196,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-29 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-26 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-20 Listed $199,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-01 Price Changed $199,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-08 Price Changed $210,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,932 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.