210 3rd Ave N · Stanford, MT 59479

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Built 1914 7,013 sqft lot Est $150k · at est. ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• New furnace
• Open living room
• Newer windows

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEW FURNACE
• DETACHED GARAGE
• CEMENT PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-984/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#52 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Stanford K-12 Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #219 of 339 in MT (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Judith Basin County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,834 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,304
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 3rd Ave N	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$122	99
118 1st St N	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,213 (-2%)	6mo	$130,000	$107	81
113 3rd St S	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,290 (+5%)	22mo	$265,000	$205	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $34,418
• Equity at exit: $90,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $106,433
• Equity at exit: $160,612

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59479

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $138,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-30	+0% $-82	+5% $-134	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $-130	+0% $-82	+5% $-34	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-44	base $-82	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   status Active
3. 2026-03-20
   status Active
4. 2026-03-05
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-08
   price $150,000
6. 2026-01-08
   price $150,000
7. 2025-11-19
   price $175,000
8. 2025-11-19
   price $175,000
9. 2025-11-15
   listed $225,000 Active
10. 2025-10-10
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$861
• After-tax cash flow: $-124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stanford K-12 Schools
• NCES district ID: 3024990
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,537
• Composite: 28.3/100
• National rank: #12150
• State rank: #219 of 339 in MT

Livability — Stanford

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #5665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stanford, MT
• Population (ZIP): 732

Population outlook (Judith Basin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,659 people
• By 2030: 1,501 · -9.5%
• By 2040: 1,199 · -27.7%
• By 2050: 962 · -42.0%
• By 2075: 655 · -60.5%
• By 2100: 516 · -68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 1% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Slovak 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Judith Basin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 19.6% · R 77.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.7pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.4 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.58%
• Current HPI: 208.2378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — MRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — HHLMLS
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Pending — MRMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $150,000 HHLMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $150,000 MRMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $175,000 MRMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $175,000 HHLMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $225,000 MRMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $225,000 HHLMLS