1168 Conchemco St · Lincoln Heights, OH 44905

$48,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Manufactured · 189 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 1168 Conchemco St. in the friendly Madison City Mobile Home Park! This surprisingly spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bath home packs 1,260 sq. ft. of “wow, this is bigger than I expected” living space. Enjoy the open kitchen and living room, perfect for cooking, lounging, or pretending you're on a home makeover show. The primary bedroom sits on its own side of the home, giving you a peaceful retreat far from anyone who snores, sings in the morning, or steals the blankets. The home comes fully equipped with a fridge, oven, dishwasher, and even a shed—because who doesn't love bonus storage for tools, holiday decorations, or that treadmill you swore you'd use? Convenien

Key facts

• Living room
• Fully equipped
• Primary bedroom

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• LIVING ROOM
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• FULLY EQUIPPED
• BONUS STORAGE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Gravel parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $593 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#534 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: housing D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Madison Local (suburban): math 48% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #430 of 656 in OH (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 145 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $338 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $43,032 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.99%
• DSCR: 3.31
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $29,877
• Equity at exit: $7,291

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $74,740
• Equity at exit: $4,228

Cash invested: $13,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44905

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,179 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$256
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $734/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $428

Max offer price $48,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,225
• Closing costs: $1,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,900 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,900 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,900 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,900 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $48,900 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $48,900 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $48,900 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,900 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 681-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $48,900 Active 178 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,739
• − Property taxes: −$734
• − Insurance: −$244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,132
• − Management: −$1,132
• − Depreciation: −$1,423
• Taxable income: $6,741
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,618
• After-tax cash flow: $5,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison Local
• NCES district ID: 3904945
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,880
• Composite: 43.45/100
• National rank: #3007
• State rank: #430 of 656 in OH

Livability — Lincoln Heights

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #9027

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing D Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Richland · 128,966 people
• Metro: Mansfield, OH
• Population (ZIP): 16,254
• Household income: $55,716
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3.1

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,577 people
• By 2030: 111,669 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 103,323 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 95,135 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 76,719 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 57,188 · -50.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.3) · D 28.4% · R 70.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -42.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.3 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+37.5 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.07%
• Current HPI: 264.3148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Listed $48,900 MARMLS