2918 Laurel Fork Dr · Houston, TX 77339

$255,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,327 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1978 7,614 sqft lot $110/sqft · 6% below area Est $270k · 6% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on a tranquil cul-de-sac near highway 59, this 4 bedroom home in Kingwood boasts a spacious living area with a charming brick fireplace and wood floors. The kitchen features updated appliances, all included. Bedrooms offer ample closet space, with the option to convert the largest into a game room. Enjoy peace of mind with a whole home generator (2024) and energy-efficient windows (2022). The landscaping was revamped in 2024, including a sprinkler system for year-round hydration. The primary bathroom was recently updated (2024), making this home a must-see for discerning buyers seeking comfort and convenience. See the updates list for a complete look at all the improvements made in recent years.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Brick fireplace
• Wood floors

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• WOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE
• WHOLE HOME GENERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elm Grove El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 619 students, 57% FRL); Kingwood Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 1,002 students, 48% FRL); Kingwood Park H S (math 48% / reading 56%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 1,950 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $255k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,639 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.79%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,113
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -5.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3907 Holly Green Ct	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-12%)	0mo	$269,786	$133	76
3211 Park Garden Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,233 (-4%)	1mo	$289,999	$130	63
3747 Clear Falls Dr	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,251 (-3%)	1mo	$240,000	$107	63
3126 Holly Green Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-14%)	2mo	$260,000	$130	60
5011 Shady Maple Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,178 (-6%)	2mo	$298,000	$137	56
3514 Appalachian Trl	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,155 (-7%)	1mo	$250,000	$116	51
5419 Knoll Terrace Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,208 (-5%)	1mo	$285,000	$129	51
5322 Creek Shadows Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,197 (-6%)	1mo	$278,000	$127	50
5122 Creek Shadows Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,072 (-11%)	1mo	$299,900	$145	50
5317 Shady Maple Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,073 (-11%)	0mo	$274,995	$133	49
3626 Bear Lake Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,052 (-12%)	1mo	$345,000	$168	46
3618 Riverwood Park Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-14%)	1mo	$269,990	$135	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.48% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-25,986
• Equity at exit: $80,184

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-29,597
• Equity at exit: $101,433

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77339

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$510 /mo · $6,119/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,514

Max offer price $204,639

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-141	-5% $-213	+0% $-285	+5% $-357	+10% $-429
Rent	-10% $-455	-5% $-370	+0% $-285	+5% $-200	+10% $-115
Rate	-1.0pp $-157	-0.5pp $-220	base $-285	+0.5pp $-351	+1.0pp $-418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3007 Birch Creek Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	25d	1	0.16mi
3334 Birch Creek Dr Kingwood, TX	5.0	3.5	2950	$2,695	$0.91	45d	1	0.34mi
3303 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2010	$1,976	$0.98	0d	1	0.36mi
3327 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,575	$0.97	20d	1	0.41mi
3327 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,683	$1.04	23d	1	0.41mi
4535 Echo Falls Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2184	$2,145	$0.98	3d	1	0.41mi
3619 Maple Glen Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.0	2332	$2,149	$0.92	18d	1	0.61mi
3918 Forest Village Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2354	$2,350	$1.00	25d	1	0.64mi
3806 Village Oaks Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2465	$2,300	$0.93	23d	1	0.78mi
3514 Creek Manor Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2274	$1,995	$0.88	45d	1	0.81mi
5706 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2346	$2,095	$0.89	16d	1	0.99mi
5714 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,830	$1.02	21d	1	1.01mi
2222 Riverford Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	3.0	1908	$1,895	$0.99	25d	1	1.08mi
3311 Pleasant Hollow Ln Porter, TX	5.0	3.5	3196	$3,320	$1.04	18d	1	1.12mi
2215 Silver Falls Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,075	$1.04	45d	1	1.16mi
9323 Darby Knoll Way Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2182	$2,595	$1.19	45d	1	1.32mi
3102 Hickory Falls Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	3336	$2,485	$0.74	4d	1	1.34mi
2115 Oak Shores Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,800	$1.13	45d	1	1.38mi
3515 Hidden Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	1986	$1,850	$0.93	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $255,000 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Nestled on a tranquil cul-de-sac near highway 59, this 4 bedroom home in Kingwood boasts a spacious living area with a charming brick fireplace and wood floors. The kitchen features updated appliances, all included. Bedrooms offer ample closet space, with the option to convert the largest into a game room. Enjoy peace of mind with a whole home generator (2024) and energy-efficient windows (2022). The landscaping was revamped in 2024, including a sprinkler system for year-round hydration. The primary bathroom was recently updated (2024), making this home a must-see for discerning buyers seeking comfort and convenience. See the updates list for a complete look at all the improvements made in recent years.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $265,000 Active 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Nestled on a tranquil cul-de-sac near highway 59, this 4 bedroom home in Kingwood boasts a spacious living area with a charming brick fireplace and wood floors. The kitchen features updated appliances, all included. Bedrooms offer ample closet space, with the option to convert the largest into a game room. Enjoy peace of mind with a whole home generator (2024) and energy-efficient windows (2022). The landscaping was revamped in 2024, including a sprinkler system for year-round hydration. The primary bathroom was recently updated (2024), making this home a must-see for discerning buyers seeking comfort and convenience. See the updates list for a complete look at all the improvements made in recent years.

18. 2017-12-29
    soldstatus
19. 2017-12-27
    soldstatus Sold 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    WONDERFUL 4BR/2BTH HOME LOCATED ON A TREE SHADED CUL DE SAC IN THE UPFRONT NEIGHBORHOOD OF ELM GROVE, WITH AN EASY ACCESS TO THE FREEWAY, THE NEW 99, EXON CAMPUS, AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN. HOME HAS A FORMAL LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM, KITCHEN WITH NEW COOKTOP, NEW OVEN WITH MICROWAVE. THE COZY DEN HAS A FIREPLACE, BEAUTIFUL WINDOWS. LARGE MASTER BR IS DOWNSTAIRS WITH A WALK-IN CLOSET. 3RD BR UPSTAIRS COULD BE A GAME ROOM, MEDIA ROOM OR PLAYROOM. WASHER & DRYER, FRIDGE INCLUDED.

20. 2017-12-14
    status Pending 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    WONDERFUL 4BR/2BTH HOME LOCATED ON A TREE SHADED CUL DE SAC IN THE UPFRONT NEIGHBORHOOD OF ELM GROVE, WITH AN EASY ACCESS TO THE FREEWAY, THE NEW 99, EXON CAMPUS, AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN. HOME HAS A FORMAL LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM, KITCHEN WITH NEW COOKTOP, NEW OVEN WITH MICROWAVE. THE COZY DEN HAS A FIREPLACE, BEAUTIFUL WINDOWS. LARGE MASTER BR IS DOWNSTAIRS WITH A WALK-IN CLOSET. 3RD BR UPSTAIRS COULD BE A GAME ROOM, MEDIA ROOM OR PLAYROOM. WASHER & DRYER, FRIDGE INCLUDED.

21. 2017-12-03
    status Option Pending 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    WONDERFUL 4BR/2BTH HOME LOCATED ON A TREE SHADED CUL DE SAC IN THE UPFRONT NEIGHBORHOOD OF ELM GROVE, WITH AN EASY ACCESS TO THE FREEWAY, THE NEW 99, EXON CAMPUS, AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN. HOME HAS A FORMAL LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM, KITCHEN WITH NEW COOKTOP, NEW OVEN WITH MICROWAVE. THE COZY DEN HAS A FIREPLACE, BEAUTIFUL WINDOWS. LARGE MASTER BR IS DOWNSTAIRS WITH A WALK-IN CLOSET. 3RD BR UPSTAIRS COULD BE A GAME ROOM, MEDIA ROOM OR PLAYROOM. WASHER & DRYER, FRIDGE INCLUDED.

22. 2017-10-26
    listed $190,000 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    WONDERFUL 4BR/2BTH HOME LOCATED ON A TREE SHADED CUL DE SAC IN THE UPFRONT NEIGHBORHOOD OF ELM GROVE, WITH AN EASY ACCESS TO THE FREEWAY, THE NEW 99, EXON CAMPUS, AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN. HOME HAS A FORMAL LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM, KITCHEN WITH NEW COOKTOP, NEW OVEN WITH MICROWAVE. THE COZY DEN HAS A FIREPLACE, BEAUTIFUL WINDOWS. LARGE MASTER BR IS DOWNSTAIRS WITH A WALK-IN CLOSET. 3RD BR UPSTAIRS COULD BE A GAME ROOM, MEDIA ROOM OR PLAYROOM. WASHER & DRYER, FRIDGE INCLUDED.

23. 1993-02-05
    soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,119 · $510/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,119 · $510/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$6,119
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$7,784
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,868
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,538
• Household income: $84,102
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2198.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.48%
• Current HPI: 233.4147
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.59%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+180.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2017-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-12-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-12-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-10-26 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 1993-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,119 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.