7164 Sunset Ave · Lino Lakes, MN 55014

$269,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 965 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 229 Days on market

Built 1948 0.78 ac lot $280/sqft · 26% above area Est $322k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

¾+ acre. 4 bedrooms. Space that actually works. Heated garage with wood stove, powered workshop, and two additional sheds (one with electricity). Plenty of room and outbuildings (two with power) in the backyard for yard games, tree climbing, gardening, handy "project" people and "toy storage". Inside you’ll find fresh paint, updated doors, main-level bedroom and laundry, plus a brand-new SELA 25-year roof. Simple, functional, and ready for the next owner for the next re-imagining of this space!

Key facts

• 0.78 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1948

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-408/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Lino Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#287 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Centennial Public School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #26 of 301 in MN (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $174k; list at $270k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $216,834 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,317
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -16.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-45,939
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-42,951
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55014

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,629/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,211

Max offer price $263,899

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $42	+0% $-34	+5% $-110	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-205	-5% $-120	+0% $-34	+5% $52	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $35	base $-34	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   ¾+ acre. 4 bedrooms. Space that actually works. Heated garage with wood stove, powered workshop, and two additional sheds (one with electricity). Plenty of room and outbuildings (two with power) in the backyard for yard games, tree climbing, gardening, handy "project" people and "toy storage". Inside you’ll find fresh paint, updated doors, main-level bedroom and laundry, plus a brand-new SELA 25-year roof. Simple, functional, and ready for the next owner for the next re-imagining of this space!

2. 2026-03-14
   price $269,900 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   ¾+ acre. 4 bedrooms. Space that actually works. Heated garage with wood stove, powered workshop, and two additional sheds (one with electricity). Plenty of room and outbuildings (two with power) in the backyard for yard games, tree climbing, gardening, handy "project" people and "toy storage". Inside you’ll find fresh paint, updated doors, main-level bedroom and laundry, plus a brand-new SELA 25-year roof. Simple, functional, and ready for the next owner for the next re-imagining of this space!

3. 2026-02-11
   price $275,000 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   ¾+ acre. 4 bedrooms. Space that actually works. Heated garage with wood stove, powered workshop, and two additional sheds (one with electricity). Plenty of room and outbuildings (two with power) in the backyard for yard games, tree climbing, gardening, handy "project" people and "toy storage". Inside you’ll find fresh paint, updated doors, main-level bedroom and laundry, plus a brand-new SELA 25-year roof. Simple, functional, and ready for the next owner for the next re-imagining of this space!

4. 2025-12-17
   price $285,000 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   ¾+ acre. 4 bedrooms. Space that actually works. Heated garage with wood stove, powered workshop, and two additional sheds (one with electricity). Plenty of room and outbuildings (two with power) in the backyard for yard games, tree climbing, gardening, handy "project" people and "toy storage". Inside you’ll find fresh paint, updated doors, main-level bedroom and laundry, plus a brand-new SELA 25-year roof. Simple, functional, and ready for the next owner for the next re-imagining of this space!

5. 2025-10-24
   price $290,000 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   ¾+ acre. 4 bedrooms. Space that actually works. Heated garage with wood stove, powered workshop, and two additional sheds (one with electricity). Plenty of room and outbuildings (two with power) in the backyard for yard games, tree climbing, gardening, handy "project" people and "toy storage". Inside you’ll find fresh paint, updated doors, main-level bedroom and laundry, plus a brand-new SELA 25-year roof. Simple, functional, and ready for the next owner for the next re-imagining of this space!

6. 2025-09-21
   listed $300,000 Active 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   ¾+ acre. 4 bedrooms. Space that actually works. Heated garage with wood stove, powered workshop, and two additional sheds (one with electricity). Plenty of room and outbuildings (two with power) in the backyard for yard games, tree climbing, gardening, handy "project" people and "toy storage". Inside you’ll find fresh paint, updated doors, main-level bedroom and laundry, plus a brand-new SELA 25-year roof. Simple, functional, and ready for the next owner for the next re-imagining of this space!

7. 2025-09-19
   historical $300,000 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   ¾+ acre. 4 bedrooms. Space that actually works. Heated garage with wood stove, powered workshop, and two additional sheds (one with electricity). Plenty of room and outbuildings (two with power) in the backyard for yard games, tree climbing, gardening, handy "project" people and "toy storage". Inside you’ll find fresh paint, updated doors, main-level bedroom and laundry, plus a brand-new SELA 25-year roof. Simple, functional, and ready for the next owner for the next re-imagining of this space!

8. 2005-08-29
   soldstatus $173,900 142-char remark

   Show marketing remark (142 chars)

   Build equity fast when you paint & spruce up 1 1/2 story expansion. 1 acre lot. Convenient location. 3 BR. Tons of storage. Garage + more.

9. 2005-08-29
   soldstatus $173,900

   Show marketing remark (142 chars)

   Build equity fast when you paint & spruce up 1 1/2 story expansion. 1 acre lot. Convenient location. 3 BR. Tons of storage. Garage + more.

10. 2005-08-01
    historical 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    Build equity fast when you paint & spruce up 1 1/2 story expansion. 1 acre lot. Convenient location. 3 BR. Tons of storage. Garage + more.

11. 2005-07-27
    listed $169,900 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    Build equity fast when you paint & spruce up 1 1/2 story expansion. 1 acre lot. Convenient location. 3 BR. Tons of storage. Garage + more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,629 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,826 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$197/yr (+$16/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,629
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$5,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,222
• After-tax cash flow: $814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centennial Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2708100
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $84,468
• Composite: 54.78/100
• National rank: #1316
• State rank: #26 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lino Lakes

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #6259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lino Lakes, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• City population: 28,975
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 29,047
• Household income: $103,658
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 473.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 4% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.50%
• Current HPI: 242.8272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+58.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $275,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $285,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $290,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-21 Listed $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Coming Soon $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $173,900 Public Records
• 2005-08-29 Sold (MLS) $173,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-27 Listed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,629 · +20.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.