1407 N 16th St · Memphis, TX 79245

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,347 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1999 $85/sqft · 99% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investment Opportunity! CASH or Conventional Great 3/2 Next to the school! Large backyard. Newer Roof & HVAC. This house has good bones and would make a great deal for any investor. Sellers are motivated and looking at ALL offers. Realtors, please see private remarks.

Key facts

• Hvac
• Newer roof
• Large backyard

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• NEWER ROOF
• HVAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#754 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Memphis ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #555 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hall County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,917
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 98.56%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $31,313
• Equity at exit: $61,629

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $89,371
• Equity at exit: $103,545

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79245

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,755/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,009

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $160	+0% $127	+5% $95	+10% $62
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $81	+0% $127	+5% $174	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $157	base $127	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Active 274-char remark
2. 2026-04-26
   listed $115,000 Active 274-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,755 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 19.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,755
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,124
• − Management: −$1,124
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$77
• After-tax cash flow: $1,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Memphis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830180
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,827
• Composite: 28.61/100
• National rank: #6711
• State rank: #555 of 826 in TX

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #754
• US rank: #13886

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Memphis, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,291

Population outlook (Hall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,857 people
• By 2030: 2,714 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 2,467 · -13.7%
• By 2050: 2,202 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 1,662 · -41.8%
• By 2100: 1,127 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% European 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Hall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.4) · D 13.0% · R 86.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -73.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.4 2020: R+70.8 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Current HPI: 101.6222
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,755 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.