409 Steinhagen Rd · Warrenton, MO 63383

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Other public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1945 9,757 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy your own piece of history! This newly renovated home shows off its character and charm from top to bottom. From the moment you walk in the door, newly remodeled finishes and fixtures accentuate the home's original character. Beautifully refinished hardwood floors, new carpet and linoleum. The kitchen has been completely updated with new cabinets, appliances and countertops with breakfast bar. A large living & dining room as well as a brand new full bath and main floor laundry/mud room round out the main level. Journey upstairs to find a spacious loft with plenty of storage. Located in the heart of Warrenton, within easy walking distance to parks, retail, and dining.

Key facts

• 9,757 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 13 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($796/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.5% in Warrenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#120 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Warren County R-III (town): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #172 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Daniel Boone Elem. (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 338 students, 50% FRL); Black Hawk Middle (math 25% / reading 43%, grade F, #255 of 391 statewide, top 66%, 698 students, 43% FRL); Warrenton High (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #216 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 997 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 424 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (126 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $138,955 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-23,392
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-15,205
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63383

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $829/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,306

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $114	+0% $66	+5% $18	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-43	-5% $11	+0% $66	+5% $121	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $152	-0.5pp $110	base $66	+0.5pp $22	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 McKinley Ave Warrenton, MO	2.0	1.0	822	$1,500	$1.82	45d	1	0.11mi
745 Wabash St Unit 761 Truesdale, MO	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,075	$0.93	25d	1	0.34mi
100 Arlington Way Warrenton, MO	2.0	1.0–2.5	901	$1,268	$1.41	0d	3	0.54mi
307 Granada Dr Warrenton, MO	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,275	$1.27	45d	1	0.68mi
1044 Hawthorn Village Dr Unit 1011 Hawthorne Warrenton, MO	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,375	$1.28	45d	1	0.68mi
1044 Hawthorn Village Dr Unit 1049 Hawthorne Warrenton, MO	2.0	1.5	855	$1,195	$1.40	45d	1	0.69mi
1044 Hawthorn Village Dr Unit 1027 Hawthorne Warrenton, MO	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,395	$1.29	3d	1	0.70mi
1060 Arlington Way Warrenton, MO	2.0	2.5	1152	$1,495	$1.30	0d	1	0.73mi
1056 Arlington Way Warrenton, MO	2.0	2.5	1152	$1,495	$1.30	0d	1	0.73mi
16901 Cattail Bottoms Dr Warrenton, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1232	$1,795	$1.46	0d	7	0.88mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   status Active
3. 2025-11-18
   listed $170,000 Active
4. 2025-11-15
   historical $170,000
5. 2019-03-21
   soldstatus Closed 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   Enjoy your own piece of history! This newly renovated home shows off its character and charm from top to bottom. From the moment you walk in the door, newly remodeled finishes and fixtures accentuate the home's original character. Beautifully refinished hardwood floors, new carpet and linoleum. The kitchen has been completely updated with new cabinets, appliances and countertops with breakfast bar. A large living & dining room as well as a brand new full bath and main floor laundry/mud room round out the main level. Journey upstairs to find a spacious loft with plenty of storage. Located in the heart of Warrenton, within easy walking distance to parks, retail, and dining.

6. 2019-03-19
   status Pending 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   Enjoy your own piece of history! This newly renovated home shows off its character and charm from top to bottom. From the moment you walk in the door, newly remodeled finishes and fixtures accentuate the home's original character. Beautifully refinished hardwood floors, new carpet and linoleum. The kitchen has been completely updated with new cabinets, appliances and countertops with breakfast bar. A large living & dining room as well as a brand new full bath and main floor laundry/mud room round out the main level. Journey upstairs to find a spacious loft with plenty of storage. Located in the heart of Warrenton, within easy walking distance to parks, retail, and dining.

7. 2019-02-16
   historical Active Under Contract 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   Enjoy your own piece of history! This newly renovated home shows off its character and charm from top to bottom. From the moment you walk in the door, newly remodeled finishes and fixtures accentuate the home's original character. Beautifully refinished hardwood floors, new carpet and linoleum. The kitchen has been completely updated with new cabinets, appliances and countertops with breakfast bar. A large living & dining room as well as a brand new full bath and main floor laundry/mud room round out the main level. Journey upstairs to find a spacious loft with plenty of storage. Located in the heart of Warrenton, within easy walking distance to parks, retail, and dining.

8. 2019-01-10
   listed $122,900 Active 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   Enjoy your own piece of history! This newly renovated home shows off its character and charm from top to bottom. From the moment you walk in the door, newly remodeled finishes and fixtures accentuate the home's original character. Beautifully refinished hardwood floors, new carpet and linoleum. The kitchen has been completely updated with new cabinets, appliances and countertops with breakfast bar. A large living & dining room as well as a brand new full bath and main floor laundry/mud room round out the main level. Journey upstairs to find a spacious loft with plenty of storage. Located in the heart of Warrenton, within easy walking distance to parks, retail, and dining.

9. 2015-08-07
   soldstatus Closed 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   Two Bedroom + Loft Ranch Home with One Bath - Wood Floors - Nice size rooms - Home Does Need TLC and being sold as-is

10. 2015-06-25
    historical 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    Two Bedroom + Loft Ranch Home with One Bath - Wood Floors - Nice size rooms - Home Does Need TLC and being sold as-is

11. 2015-06-15
    listed $59,900 Active 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    Two Bedroom + Loft Ranch Home with One Bath - Wood Floors - Nice size rooms - Home Does Need TLC and being sold as-is

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$820/yr (+$68/mo · 98.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$829
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,334
• − Management: −$1,334
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$514
• After-tax cash flow: $1,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County R-III
• NCES district ID: 2931050
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,644
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5690
• State rank: #172 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warrenton

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #7300

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrenton, MO
• Population (ZIP): 16,120

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,105 people
• By 2030: 35,605 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 36,047 · +2.7%
• By 2050: 35,479 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 33,325 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 28,282 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.7% · R 74.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.9pp toward R · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+45.6 2012: R+26.8 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.56%
• Current HPI: 191.2467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+183.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Listed $170,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Coming Soon $170,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-21 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-16 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-10 Listed $122,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-07 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-25 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-15 Listed $59,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $829 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.