1408 Gay St · Longview, TX 75602

$85,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1954 1.32 ac lot $84/sqft · 21% below area Est $108k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two Bedroom, one bath home in 1.32 Acre-lot in Longview ISD. Tenant occupied. To be sold as is, where is. Great investment potential.

Key facts

• 1.32 acre lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 137 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $85,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$108,185) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#213 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Longview ISD (urban): math 49% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #244 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $591 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.75%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,185
• List price: $85,500
• Delta: -20.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $7,452
• Equity at exit: $12,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $33,998
• Equity at exit: $7,392

Cash invested: $23,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75602

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$448
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,453/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $766

Max offer price $85,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,375
• Closing costs: $2,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
717 S Green St Longview, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	752	$895	$1.19	13d	2	0.98mi
115 E Tyler St Unit 200 Longview, TX	1.0	1.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	43d	1	1.05mi
115 E Tyler St Unit 102 Longview, TX	1.0	1.0	1400	$1,695	$1.21	43d	1	1.05mi
607 Texas St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,249	$1.15	13d	1	1.10mi
115 Ryan Dr Longview, TX	3.0	1.0	1175	$1,250	$1.06	13d	1	1.10mi
918 San Antonio St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,075	$0.99	13d	1	1.12mi
1123 Chappell St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,155	$1.06	21d	1	1.21mi
703 Texas St Longview, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,100	$1.12	43d	1	1.23mi
2006 Jane St Unit H Longview, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	13d	1	1.27mi
1200 N Fourth St Unit 59 Longview, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.28mi
1200 N Fourth St Apt 55 Longview, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	13d	1	1.28mi
1200 N Fourth St Unit 65 Longview, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	21d	1	1.28mi
1200 N Fourth St Unit 60 Longview, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	43d	1	1.28mi
1200 N Fourth St Apt 64 Longview, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	13d	1	1.28mi
1212 Beaumont St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,199	$1.10	43d	1	1.32mi
1109 E Birdsong St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,399	$1.28	13d	1	1.44mi
1115 E Birdsong St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,364	$1.25	13d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,500 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,500 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,500 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,500 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,500 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,500 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,500 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,500 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,500 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,500 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,500 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,500 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,500 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,500 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,500 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,500 Active 119 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,500 Active 118 DOM
18. 2026-02-02
    listed $85,500 Active 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    Two Bedroom, one bath home in 1.32 Acre-lot in Longview ISD. Tenant occupied. To be sold as is, where is. Great investment potential.

19. 2021-07-23
    soldstatus
20. 2021-07-21
    soldstatus 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    Investment opportunity, occupied single family home on over an acre in town.

21. 2020-11-22
    listed $45,000 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    Investment opportunity, occupied single family home on over an acre in town.

22. 1981-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,453 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,565 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$112/yr (+$9/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,789
• − Property taxes: −$1,453
• − Insurance: −$428
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,141
• − Management: −$1,141
• − Depreciation: −$2,487
• Taxable income: $2,826
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$678
• After-tax cash flow: $3,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longview ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828110
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,837
• Composite: 39.76/100
• National rank: #3889
• State rank: #244 of 826 in TX

Livability — Longview

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #5287

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Longview, TX
• County: Gregg County · 128,826 people
• City population: 103,792
• Metro: Longview, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,671
• Household income: $52,330
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Gregg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,947 people
• By 2030: 126,542 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 127,311 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 127,289 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 124,954 · -0.8%
• By 2100: 113,737 · -9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 30% Black 28% Two or more races 28% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gregg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.5% · R 70.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.6pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+36.9 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+37.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.34%
• Current HPI: 218.2988
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Longview, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+90.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $85,500 LAAR
• 2021-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-21 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2020-11-22 Listed $45,000 LAAR
• 1981-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,453 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.