12319 W Village Dr Unit D · Houston, TX 77039

$80,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,340 sqft · Townhouse public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1979 2,227 sqft lot $60/sqft · 31% below area Est $115k · 31% under $202/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

North east Houston Area- Aldine. Near Intercontinental Airport and Deerbrook Mail. Both bedrooms upstairs. Large living area with fireplace.

Key facts

• Large living area
• Fireplace
• $202 HOA

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 5233% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.60%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,193
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -30.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12339 W Village Dr Unit D	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,340 (0%)	12mo	$55,000	$41	87
12315 W Village Dr Unit A	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,340 (0%)	16mo	$88,000	$66	86
5618 Easthampton Dr Unit D	0.20mi	2/1.5	1,411 (+5%)	4mo	$64,900	$46	78
12282 Wild Pine Dr Unit A	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,313 (-2%)	11mo	$99,900	$76	70
12439 W Village Dr Unit B	0.13mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,320 (-2%)	14mo	$110,000	$83	70
12419 W Village Dr Unit A	0.11mi	2/1.5	1,526 (+14%)	13mo	$58,000	$38	61
12306 Wild Pine Dr Unit D	0.30mi	2/2.5	1,196 (-11%)	4mo	$69,000	$58	61
12307 W Village Dr Unit C	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,491 (+11%)	15mo	$135,700	$91	60
5714 Easthampton Dr Unit C	0.21mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,527 (+14%)	4mo	$125,000	$82	55
5715 Easthampton Dr Unit D	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (+11%)	19mo	$160,000	$107	54
5710 Easthampton Dr Unit D	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-10%)	20mo	$100,000	$83	53
12206 Northwood Forest Dr #3	0.59mi	2/2.5	1,224 (-9%)	17mo	$129,900	$106	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-7,262
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $1,662
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77039

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,937/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$202
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5001 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1065	$1,006	$0.94	43d	16	0.54mi
4610 Anice St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$1,566	$0.88	12d	1	1.17mi
11610 Danford Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	43d	1	1.18mi
4505 Aldine Mail Rte Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,350	$1.71	1d	6	1.19mi
4505 Aldine Mail Route Rd Unit 712 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,325	$1.43	43d	1	1.23mi
5526 Rotan Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$900	$0.86	18d	1	1.23mi
11435 Raincove Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,345	$1.34	4d	1	1.28mi
4335 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,118	$1.19	1d	7	1.30mi
4335 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$983	$1.13	22d	6	1.30mi
4341 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,107	$1.19	43d	1	1.31mi
4341 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,107	$1.19	22d	1	1.31mi
12556 John F Kennedy Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,115	$1.20	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $202 · $2,424/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    historical $1,300
16. 2026-03-07
    price $1,300
17. 2026-02-21
    price $1,450
18. 2026-02-16
    price $1,350
19. 2026-02-15
    listed $1,500
20. 2026-01-27
    listed $80,000 Active 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    North east Houston Area- Aldine. Near Intercontinental Airport and Deerbrook Mail. Both bedrooms upstairs. Large living area with fireplace.

21. 2022-10-05
    soldstatus
22. 2020-01-22
    soldstatus
23. 2018-05-11
    historical
24. 2017-05-11
    listed $64,000 Active
25. 2015-05-12
    soldstatus
26. 2015-05-07
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2015-04-09
    status Pending
28. 2015-03-24
    status Active
29. 2015-03-13
    status Option Pending
30. 2014-12-04
    listed $41,900 Active
31. 2014-11-21
    historical
32. 2014-11-06
    price $41,900
33. 2014-09-16
    listed $42,900 Active
34. 2011-04-21
    historical
35. 2011-04-01
    listed $18,500
36. 2010-03-16
    soldstatus
37. 2008-08-05
    soldstatus $375,000
38. 1990-10-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,937 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,937 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$2,937
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − HOA: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $5
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1
• After-tax cash flow: $1,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,862
• Household income: $47,119
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1128.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 15% Black 9% White 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.88%
• Current HPI: 316.66
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.7% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Rental Removed $1,300 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $1,300 HARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $1,450 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $1,350 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-05-11 Listed $64,000 HARMLS
• 2015-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-04-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-03-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-03-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-12-04 Listed $41,900 HARMLS
• 2014-11-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-11-06 Price Changed $41,900 HARMLS
• 2014-09-16 Listed $42,900 HARMLS
• 2011-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-04-01 Listed $18,500 HARMLS
• 2010-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 1990-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,937 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.