2806 Ivy Ave · Hidalgo, TX 78557

$228,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 2000 6,760 sqft lot Est $322k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,916 sq ft of living space in Hidalgo, TX. Recently upgraded and conveniently located near schools, shopping, and local parks. Spacious backyard is perfect for gatherings with family and friends, entertaining, or relaxing outdoors. A great place to call home!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Upgraded
• Conveniently located

Tags

• UPGRADED
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source: HidalgoCAD
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Community features include curbs and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City sewer; Cable available; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family property (1,916 total building area); Paved road access
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Mature trees; Corner lot; Curb & gutters; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Solid surface and stone countertops; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Double-pane windows; Drapes
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer/dryer connection; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#488 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Valley View ISD (suburban): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #631 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Valley View El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 412 students, 96% FRL); Valley View J H (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 483 students, 95% FRL); Valley View H S (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 1,170 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13312% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,539 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,888
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
903 N 35th St	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,899 (-1%)	3mo	$199,000	$105	73
3003 E Palo Blanco St	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,876 (-2%)	6mo	$315,200	$168	71
2924 Monterrey St	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,954 (+2%)	2mo	$189,000	$97	70
2809 E Palo Blanco Ave	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,745 (-9%)	1mo	$299,000	$171	64
301 N 30th St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (-6%)	3mo	$295,000	$163	59
1515 32nd St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,740 (-9%)	2mo	$285,000	$164	58
303 N 32nd St	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,834 (-4%)	2mo	$310,000	$169	57
2908 E Uva Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-10%)	3mo	$299,900	$173	51
2809 E Zarzamora Ave	0.72mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,864 (-3%)	2mo	$298,000	$160	50
3104 E Uva Ave E	0.67mi	3/3.5	1,726 (-10%)	2mo	$294,900	$171	45
3009 E Tamarindo Ave	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,654 (-14%)	4mo	$295,000	$178	41
2112 N 25th 1/2 St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,699 (-11%)	6mo	$265,700	$156	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $109,579
• Equity at exit: $205,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $334,427
• Equity at exit: $442,954

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78557

• Home prices YoY: 17.9%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$390 /mo · $4,679/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,127

Max offer price $187,262

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-102	-5% $-166	+0% $-231	+5% $-295	+10% $-360
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-303	+0% $-231	+5% $-158	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-173	base $-231	+0.5pp $-290	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2509 Coma St Hidalgo, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$1,750	$0.97	25d	1	0.54mi
2304 E Tamarindo Ave Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,950	$1.35	25d	1	0.75mi
400 S 22nd St Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.5	2515	$2,000	$0.80	45d	1	0.81mi
704 S 17th St Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1666	$1,650	$0.99	25d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $228,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $228,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $228,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $228,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $228,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $228,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $228,000 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    historical $1,700
18. 2026-03-09
    listed $1,700
19. 2026-03-08
    price $228,000
20. 2026-02-24
    price $229,000
21. 2026-01-29
    price $230,000
22. 2026-01-15
    listed $232,000 Active
23. 2025-10-01
    price $259,900
24. 2025-08-14
    listed $278,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,679 · $390/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,679 · $390/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,772
• − Property taxes: −$4,679
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$6,722
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley View ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,158
• Composite: 25.37/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #631 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hidalgo

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #9681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hidalgo, TX
• City population: 14,250
• Population (ZIP): 14,250

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 99% Two or more races 47%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 6% English-only · Spanish 94%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.26%
• Current HPI: 225.701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Rental Removed $1,700 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed for Rent $1,700 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $228,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $229,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $230,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $232,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $259,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $278,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,679 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.