515 Williams St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$65,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,966 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1884 7,200 sqft lot Est $75k · 13% under ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MULTI UNIT HOME OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO.

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Built 1884

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1884 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1884 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.21%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,708
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1209 S Fayette St	0.25mi	4/1.0	2,058 (+5%)	9mo	$35,000	$17	69
709 S Michigan Ave	0.05mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,860 (-5%)	14mo	$88,500	$48	68
616 S Oakley St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,836 (-7%)	7mo	$36,000	$20	58
1206 S Hamilton St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,136 (+9%)	8mo	$35,000	$16	58
1323 S Michigan Ave	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,125 (+8%)	17mo	$25,000	$12	57
1421 Mackinaw St	0.56mi	4/1.5	2,134 (+8%)	12mo	$155,000	$73	48
1715 S Michigan Ave	0.55mi	4/1.5	2,146 (+9%)	16mo	$118,000	$55	44
1530 Ottawa Blvd	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,136 (+9%)	11mo	$137,000	$64	41
210 N Bond St	0.63mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,864 (-5%)	21mo	$69,900	$38	39
1402 Lyon st St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,827 (-7%)	21mo	$26,000	$14	38
513 N Webster St	0.75mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,160 (+10%)	8mo	$50,000	$23	35
222 Garden Ln	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,117 (+8%)	23mo	$113,500	$54	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $16,141
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $52,313
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,690/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $749

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (54 chars)

   MULTI UNIT HOME OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO.

2. 2026-03-15
   status Pending 54-char remark

   Show marketing remark (54 chars)

   MULTI UNIT HOME OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO.

3. 2026-03-14
   listed $65,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (54 chars)

   MULTI UNIT HOME OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO.

4. 2026-03-14
   listed $65,000 Active 54-char remark

   Show marketing remark (54 chars)

   MULTI UNIT HOME OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO.

5. 2012-10-19
   soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,690 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,690 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$2,690
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,081
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$979
• After-tax cash flow: $3,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-43.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $65,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,690 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.