4010 E Melinda Ln · Phoenix, AZ 85050

$499,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1998 2,673 sqft lot Est $452k · 11% over $118/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous new Single Family home in the highly desirable neighborhood of Desert Ridge! Mountain Views from the Master Bedroom, artificial grass in backyard and your own beautiful private pool. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator included. Brand new kitchen backsplash with white subway tiles to compliment your stainless steel appliances. Spacious 2 car garage with additional storage. Brand new water heater and new interior paint in 2022. Carpet in good shape and recently steam cleaned. New AC motor replaced approx. 4 years ago; New exterior paint from 2021. House has been taken well care of. This home will not last long!

Key facts

• Private pool
• Brand new flooring
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• BRAND NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE POOL
• NO NEIGHBOR DIRECTLY BEHIND
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO LOOP 101

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-966/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $486k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $381k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $381k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Trails Elementary School (math 79% / reading 73%, grade A, #29 of 1,109 statewide, top 3%, 613 students, 10% FRL); Explorer Middle School (math 57% / reading 53%, grade B-, #11 of 218 statewide, top 6%, 678 students, 6% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools average 8% FRL vs 29% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($140k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $380,837 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $451,764
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4010 E Melinda Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,269 (0%)	1mo	$512,400	$404	98
4049 E Melinda Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,269 (0%)	3mo	$450,000	$355	92
4520 E Lone Cactus Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+2%)	6mo	$630,000	$489	71
4020 E Melinda Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,449 (+14%)	4mo	$505,000	$349	71
4619 E Adobe Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+2%)	0mo	$540,000	$419	66
4432 E Melinda Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+10%)	1mo	$537,000	$385	64
3964 E Cat Balue Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,444 (+14%)	4mo	$500,000	$346	60
3969 E Cat Balue Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,444 (+14%)	4mo	$500,000	$346	60
4632 E Melinda Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+4%)	9mo	$538,900	$408	60
3941 E Cat Balue Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,444 (+14%)	4mo	$510,000	$353	59
3932 E Melinda Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,448 (+14%)	2mo	$515,000	$356	58
3977 E Cat Balue Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,444 (+14%)	10mo	$492,000	$341	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-90,172
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-101,359
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85050

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,808 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,696/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$118
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$800
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,910

Max offer price $485,672

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4066 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1269	$3,500	$2.76	43d	1	0.13mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1383	$4,350	$3.15	17d	2	0.20mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5–3.0	1490	$4,750	$3.19	43d	2	0.20mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1405	$6,000	$4.27	17d	3	0.20mi
4517 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$3,100	$1.86	14d	1	0.47mi
4509 E Lone Cactus Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$4,500	$2.71	43d	1	0.48mi
21624 N 46th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1540	$3,200	$2.08	4d	1	0.53mi
4211 E Kirkland Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1828	$10,000	$5.47	24d	1	0.56mi
4211 E Kirkland Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1828	$5,000	$2.74	43d	1	0.57mi
4632 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$3,800	$2.50	43d	1	0.57mi
4726 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1610	$2,500	$1.55	7d	1	0.62mi
21150 N Tatum Blvd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1136	$2,495	$2.20	1d	26	0.64mi
4723 E Weaver Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$2,595	$1.56	13d	1	0.68mi
4847 E Abraham Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1540	$4,500	$2.92	43d	1	0.81mi
21611 N 48th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,650	$1.74	21d	1	0.83mi
4900 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1404	$3,445	$2.45	4d	9	0.86mi
20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1325	$3,500	$2.64	17d	4	1.08mi
20660 N 40th St #2137 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1131	$3,500	$3.09	43d	1	1.13mi
20729 N 37th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,000	$1.80	14d	1	1.19mi
3706 E Potter Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,550	$1.43	24d	1	1.21mi
3706 E Potter Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,550	$1.43	21d	1	1.21mi
3626 E Potter Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,500	$1.65	24d	1	1.21mi
5350 E Deer Valley Dr Unit 1545730P Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,341	$1.89	13d	1	1.32mi
5315 E High St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1304	$3,049	$2.34	3d	24	1.38mi
5450 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1355	$4,250	$3.14	43d	2	1.42mi
5450 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$5,000	$4.42	4d	6	1.42mi
21320 N 56th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1646	$7,000	$4.25	18d	6	1.43mi
21320 N 56th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1790	$7,000	$3.91	2d	5	1.43mi
5350 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1559	$3,800	$2.44	7d	6	1.45mi
5350 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1294	$3,648	$2.82	43d	2	1.45mi
5350 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$3,800	$3.46	5d	4	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $118 · $1,416/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   status Active
3. 2026-04-16
   historical
4. 2026-03-31
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
5. 2026-03-19
   listed $499,900 Active
6. 2022-10-11
   soldstatus $491,000 Closed 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Gorgeous new Single Family home in the highly desirable neighborhood of Desert Ridge! Mountain Views from the Master Bedroom, artificial grass in backyard and your own beautiful private pool. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator included. Brand new kitchen backsplash with white subway tiles to compliment your stainless steel appliances. Spacious 2 car garage with additional storage. Brand new water heater and new interior paint in 2022. Carpet in good shape and recently steam cleaned. New AC motor replaced approx. 4 years ago; New exterior paint from 2021. House has been taken well care of. This home will not last long!

7. 2022-10-11
   soldstatus $491,000

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Gorgeous new Single Family home in the highly desirable neighborhood of Desert Ridge! Mountain Views from the Master Bedroom, artificial grass in backyard and your own beautiful private pool. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator included. Brand new kitchen backsplash with white subway tiles to compliment your stainless steel appliances. Spacious 2 car garage with additional storage. Brand new water heater and new interior paint in 2022. Carpet in good shape and recently steam cleaned. New AC motor replaced approx. 4 years ago; New exterior paint from 2021. House has been taken well care of. This home will not last long!

8. 2022-09-03
   status Pending 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Gorgeous new Single Family home in the highly desirable neighborhood of Desert Ridge! Mountain Views from the Master Bedroom, artificial grass in backyard and your own beautiful private pool. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator included. Brand new kitchen backsplash with white subway tiles to compliment your stainless steel appliances. Spacious 2 car garage with additional storage. Brand new water heater and new interior paint in 2022. Carpet in good shape and recently steam cleaned. New AC motor replaced approx. 4 years ago; New exterior paint from 2021. House has been taken well care of. This home will not last long!

9. 2022-08-25
   price $525,000 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Gorgeous new Single Family home in the highly desirable neighborhood of Desert Ridge! Mountain Views from the Master Bedroom, artificial grass in backyard and your own beautiful private pool. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator included. Brand new kitchen backsplash with white subway tiles to compliment your stainless steel appliances. Spacious 2 car garage with additional storage. Brand new water heater and new interior paint in 2022. Carpet in good shape and recently steam cleaned. New AC motor replaced approx. 4 years ago; New exterior paint from 2021. House has been taken well care of. This home will not last long!

10. 2022-07-21
    listed $535,000 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Gorgeous new Single Family home in the highly desirable neighborhood of Desert Ridge! Mountain Views from the Master Bedroom, artificial grass in backyard and your own beautiful private pool. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator included. Brand new kitchen backsplash with white subway tiles to compliment your stainless steel appliances. Spacious 2 car garage with additional storage. Brand new water heater and new interior paint in 2022. Carpet in good shape and recently steam cleaned. New AC motor replaced approx. 4 years ago; New exterior paint from 2021. House has been taken well care of. This home will not last long!

11. 2018-03-30
    soldstatus $275,000
12. 2005-06-15
    soldstatus $310,000
13. 2005-06-08
    soldstatus $310,000 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Wow! *** Price Reduced !!! *** Location and privacy are the keys to this highly sought after Vista model in the Fiesta at Desert Ridge. One of only twelve homes in the subdivision with a pool, this beautiful 3Bed / 2.5Bath home is minutes from Desert Ridge Marketplace and the Loop 101. Mountain Views from the Master Bedroom, and a plush backyard garden add to the ambience. An absolute bargain in the area! Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator all stay! This home is priced to sell! Please prepare a clean and solid offer, as this home will not last long!

14. 2005-04-18
    historical 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Wow! *** Price Reduced !!! *** Location and privacy are the keys to this highly sought after Vista model in the Fiesta at Desert Ridge. One of only twelve homes in the subdivision with a pool, this beautiful 3Bed / 2.5Bath home is minutes from Desert Ridge Marketplace and the Loop 101. Mountain Views from the Master Bedroom, and a plush backyard garden add to the ambience. An absolute bargain in the area! Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator all stay! This home is priced to sell! Please prepare a clean and solid offer, as this home will not last long!

15. 2005-03-31
    listed $309,000 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Wow! *** Price Reduced !!! *** Location and privacy are the keys to this highly sought after Vista model in the Fiesta at Desert Ridge. One of only twelve homes in the subdivision with a pool, this beautiful 3Bed / 2.5Bath home is minutes from Desert Ridge Marketplace and the Loop 101. Mountain Views from the Master Bedroom, and a plush backyard garden add to the ambience. An absolute bargain in the area! Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator all stay! This home is priced to sell! Please prepare a clean and solid offer, as this home will not last long!

16. 1999-10-20
    soldstatus $127,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,299 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,603/yr (+$134/mo · 94.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,696
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,656
• − Management: −$3,656
• − HOA: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$9,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,344
• After-tax cash flow: $1,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,118
• Household income: $139,836
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.38%
• Current HPI: 308.7483
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+293.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $499,900 ARMLS
• 2022-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $491,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-11 Sold (MLS) $491,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-03 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-08-25 Price Changed $525,000 ARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Listed $535,000 ARMLS
• 2018-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-08 Sold (MLS) $310,000 ARMLS
• 2005-04-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-03-31 Listed $309,000 ARMLS
• 1999-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,696 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.