8119 Walpole Ave · California City, CA 93505

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 335 Days on market

Built 1989 6,970 sqft lot $198/sqft · 7% below area Est $215k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this California City home. Great for first time home buyers. This charming home is located on north loop side. Home has 3 very spacious bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Laminate flooring throughout. It has nice front yard and back yard. Also, it comes with an additional storage shed in the back of the home for all of your home equipment. Home is on city sewer and gas on propane tank. Don't miss out on this one!

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Back yard
• California city home

Tags

• CALIFORNIA CITY HOME
• NORTH LOOP SIDE
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• FRONT YARD
• BACK YARD
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-325/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 335 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,002 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 335 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,252
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -7.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8037 Walpole Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,012 (0%)	1mo	$153,000	$151	97
21207 Kenniston	0.31mi	3/1.0	923 (-9%)	1mo	$130,000	$141	70
8757 N Loop Blvd	0.56mi	3/1.0	990 (-2%)	1mo	$209,000	$211	69
8318 Quezon Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-1%)	22mo	$270,000	$270	67
21213 Kenniston St	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,100 (+9%)	12mo	$210,000	$191	60
7607 Columbine Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	923 (-9%)	0mo	$230,000	$249	58
7800 Xavier Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	923 (-9%)	16mo	$220,000	$238	52
21143 Isabella Blvd	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,100 (+9%)	4mo	$200,000	$182	49
8651 S South Loop Boulevard Blvd	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (+4%)	8mo	$143,280	$136	48
7407 Xavier Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,025 (+1%)	23mo	$240,000	$234	40
20837 87th St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+9%)	23mo	$270,000	$245	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $111,452
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $339,087
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,680 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,666/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,714

Max offer price $195,218

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $30	+0% $-27	+5% $-84	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-93	+0% $-27	+5% $39	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $74	-0.5pp $24	base $-27	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21113 Nemophilia St Unit C California City, CA	2.0	1.0	761	$1,250	$1.64	24d	1	0.18mi
8318 Dogbane Ave Unit F California City, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,350	$1.53	24d	1	0.20mi
21032 79th St California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1228	$2,100	$1.71	24d	1	0.29mi
7819 Walpole Ave California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	24d	1	0.32mi
20961 83rd St Unit 6 California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	24d	1	0.37mi
20912 83rd St Unit C California City, CA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,150	$1.47	24d	1	0.44mi
8531 Columbine Ave Unit B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	15d	1	0.49mi
8655 N Loop Blvd Unit A California City, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	24d	1	0.51mi
21001 Berry St Unit 5 California City, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,150	$1.29	24d	1	0.55mi
7617 California City Blvd Apt B California City, CA	2.0	1.0	894	$1,225	$1.37	4d	1	0.58mi
8709 Xavier Ave Unit 3 California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	15d	1	0.61mi
8307 Charles Pl California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,750	$1.17	15d	1	0.62mi
8100 Fernwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,850	$1.38	24d	1	0.65mi
8712 California City Blvd Unit 2 California City, CA	2.0	1.5	715	$1,150	$1.61	24d	1	0.65mi
8816 Fuchsia Ave Unit PASSTHROUGH B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,550	$1.44	15d	1	0.70mi
8651 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	4d	1	0.73mi
7317 California City Blvd California City, CA	3.0	1.5	1228	$1,725	$1.40	19d	1	0.86mi
7343 Dogwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,250	$1.73	24d	1	0.91mi
8160 Kalmia Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,795	$1.41	24d	1	0.99mi
7113 Victor Pl Unit B California City, CA	3.0	2.5	1240	$1,600	$1.29	24d	1	1.04mi
21411 Hacienda Blvd Unit D California City, CA	2.0	2.0	898	$1,475	$1.64	24d	1	1.11mi
8648 Lime Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,400	$1.64	24d	1	1.13mi
20321 88th St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,100	$1.79	24d	1	1.14mi
6151 Poppy Blvd Unit D California City, CA	2.0	2.0	825	$1,795	$2.18	4d	1	1.19mi
8560 Nipa Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,850	$1.41	15d	1	1.19mi
9387 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	807	$1,150	$1.43	24d	1	1.20mi
9213 Holly Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,900	$1.42	4d	1	1.31mi
21811 69th St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,700	$1.39	24d	1	1.33mi
21801 69th St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	1.33mi
8848 Oleander Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	1.37mi
9524 Sally Ave Unit C California City, CA	2.0	1.5	1140	$1,300	$1.14	24d	1	1.37mi
20001 Airway Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,400	$2.29	24d	1	1.38mi
9548 Sally Ave Unit B California City, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	24d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 335 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 334 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 333 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 332 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 330 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 329 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 327 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 326 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 325 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 324 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 321 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 320 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 319 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 318 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 317 DOM
16. 2026-03-04
    listed $200,000 Active 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Welcome to this California City home. Great for first time home buyers. This charming home is located on north loop side. Home has 3 very spacious bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Laminate flooring throughout. It has nice front yard and back yard. Also, it comes with an additional storage shed in the back of the home for all of your home equipment. Home is on city sewer and gas on propane tank. Don't miss out on this one!

17. 2025-08-28
    price $200,000 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Welcome to this California City home. Great for first time home buyers. This charming home is located on north loop side. Home has 3 very spacious bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Laminate flooring throughout. It has nice front yard and back yard. Also, it comes with an additional storage shed in the back of the home for all of your home equipment. Home is on city sewer and gas on propane tank. Don't miss out on this one!

18. 2025-08-28
    price $200,000

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Welcome to this California City home. Great for first time home buyers. This charming home is located on north loop side. Home has 3 very spacious bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Laminate flooring throughout. It has nice front yard and back yard. Also, it comes with an additional storage shed in the back of the home for all of your home equipment. Home is on city sewer and gas on propane tank. Don't miss out on this one!

19. 2025-07-18
    listed $210,000 Active 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Welcome to this California City home. Great for first time home buyers. This charming home is located on north loop side. Home has 3 very spacious bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Laminate flooring throughout. It has nice front yard and back yard. Also, it comes with an additional storage shed in the back of the home for all of your home equipment. Home is on city sewer and gas on propane tank. Don't miss out on this one!

20. 2025-07-16
    price $210,000
21. 2025-07-16
    price $21,000
22. 2025-07-12
    price $215,000
23. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $200,000 Closed
24. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $200,000
25. 2022-02-21
    listed $250,000 Active
26. 1989-09-27
    soldstatus $51,000
27. 1988-03-17
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,666
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$901
• After-tax cash flow: $576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2757.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $200,000 AVMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $200,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $200,000 AVMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $210,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $210,000 AVMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $21,000 AVMLS
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $215,000 AVMLS
• 2022-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-26 Sold (MLS) $200,000 AVMLS
• 2022-02-21 Listed $250,000 AVMLS
• 1989-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1988-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,666 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.