209 Evans Dr · Butler, AL 36904

$92,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1979

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice 3 bed 2 bath house at the end of the street. Bathrooms redone 2 years ago.

Key facts

• Built 1979
• Listed 24 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $82k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#234 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Choctaw County (rural): math 3% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #119 of 129 in AL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($636 loan paydown + $408 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Choctaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,500 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $6,323
• Equity at exit: $28,772

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $28,791
• Equity at exit: $36,274

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36904

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $229/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $683

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
803 Vanity Fair Ave Butler, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $92,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $92,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $92,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $92,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $92,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $229 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $377 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$148/yr (+$12/mo · 64.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$229
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$792
• − Management: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable loss: −$203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$49
• After-tax cash flow: $1,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Choctaw County
• NCES district ID: 0100690
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $33,001
• Composite: 8.77/100
• National rank: #9893
• State rank: #119 of 129 in AL

Livability — Butler

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #17330

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Butler, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,468

Population outlook (Choctaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,009 people
• By 2030: 11,370 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 10,084 · -16.0%
• By 2050: 8,923 · -25.7%
• By 2075: 6,952 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 5,748 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 41% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Choctaw

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.9) · D 37.8% · R 61.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.4pp · 2024: -23.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.9 2020: R+15.7 2016: R+13.7 2012: R+4.6 2008: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Current HPI: 92.826
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $92,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $229 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.