10 Edinburgh Ln Unit A · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$139,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Built 1973 6,098 sqft lot Est $218k · 36% under $319/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 10A Edinburgh Lane in Leisure Village West, a Gated, Active Adult Community with amenities galore, right in the heart of Ocean County. This Baronet model is 2 bedroom/ 1.5 bath, with an Eat-in Kitchen, an Open Concept Living room/ Dining room Combo, and a sunroom, the perfect place to relax. And when you're not relaxing, there are those amenities--a few include: 2 Nine Hole golf courses, 2 Swimming Pools, 3 Clubhouse/ Recreation Centers, a Nature Preserve Area, a Greenhouse, a Fitness Center, Bus Service for shopping, Clubs, Activities, and So Much More. With its close proximity to NYC, Philly, and Atlantic City, there's no reason not to take a look at this home. It may just be y

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 5.8% in Leisure Village West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.70%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Edinburgh Ln Unit D	0.09mi	2/1.5	1,050 (0%)	4mo	$255,000	$243	92
32B Edinburgh Ln	0.08mi	2/2.5	1,050 (0%)	1mo	$172,500	$164	91
32D Sterling St	0.20mi	2/1.5	1,050 (0%)	5mo	$225,000	$214	86
32C Yorkshire Ct	0.32mi	2/1.5	1,050 (0%)	1mo	$190,000	$181	84
8A Edinburgh Ln Unit A	0.04mi	2/1.0	939 (-11%)	1mo	$195,000	$208	78
61 Cambridge Cir Unit B	0.44mi	2/1.5	1,050 (0%)	5mo	$249,000	$237	76
440 Dartmoor Way Unit I	0.08mi	2/2.0	946 (-10%)	5mo	$185,000	$196	74
439-H Chesterfield Ct	0.07mi	2/2.0	946 (-10%)	6mo	$184,000	$195	73
6D Gramercy Ln	0.55mi	2/1.5	1,050 (0%)	2mo	$275,000	$262	73
22B Buckingham Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,065 (+1%)	5mo	$205,000	$192	72
26B Edinburgh Ln	0.12mi	2/1.5	1,162 (+11%)	6mo	$222,500	$191	72
478A Buckingham Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,164 (+11%)	3mo	$259,000	$223	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $24,758
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $83,281
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,566 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$319
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,628

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	43d	1	0.15mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	43d	1	0.71mi
1540 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,900	$2.15	43d	1	0.95mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	43d	1	1.08mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	22d	1	1.08mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	43d	1	1.11mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	1d	1	1.31mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	1d	3	1.37mi
1732 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1248	$3,500	$2.80	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $319 · $3,828/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 7 events

1. 2023-09-21
   status Pending
2. 2022-06-11
   status Pending
3. 2022-03-28
   historical Active/Under Contract
4. 2022-03-18
   status Active
5. 2022-03-05
   status Pending
6. 2022-03-03
   historical Active/Under Contract
7. 2022-02-11
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,463
• − Management: −$2,463
• − HOA: −$3,828
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $7,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,759
• After-tax cash flow: $7,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2023-09-21 Pending — MOMLS
• 2022-06-11 Pending — MOMLS
• 2022-03-28 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2022-03-18 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2022-03-05 Pending — MOMLS
• 2022-03-03 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2022-02-11 Listed $139,900 MOMLS