774 Guernsey Rd · La Marque, TX 77568

$325,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,439 sqft · Land · 104 Days on market

Built 2026 6,775 sqft lot $134/sqft · 9% above area Est $298k · 9% over $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs game room offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Primary suite
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $326k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-272/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $255,057 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,332
• List price: $325,900
• Delta: 9.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-51,885
• Equity at exit: $48,593

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-37,122
• Equity at exit: $28,178

Cash invested: $91,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,551 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,709
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,617/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,579

Max offer price $321,898

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $70	+0% $-23	+5% $-115	+10% $-207
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-123	+0% $-23	+5% $78	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $60	base $-23	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,475
• Closing costs: $9,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14403 Daniel Shores Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0–3.5	1872	$2,600	$1.39	0d	12	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,900 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,900 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,900 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,900 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,900 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,900 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,900 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,900 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-03-09
    listed $325,900 Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs game room offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

17. 2026-02-07
    listed $325,900 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

18. 2024-12-30
    historical
19. 2024-06-10
    listed $317,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,617 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,964 · $497/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,347/yr (+$362/mo · 268.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,255
• − Property taxes: −$1,617
• − Insurance: −$1,630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,449
• − Management: −$2,449
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$9,481
• Taxable loss: −$5,969
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,433
• After-tax cash flow: $1,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $325,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $325,900 Zillow
• 2024-12-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-10 Listed $317,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,617 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.