3960 Willow Heights Dr SW · Rochester, MN 55902

$230,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1977 7,579 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3 bedroom home has a great fenced yard and is ready to move into! Enjoy the mature trees on your deck this summer. Great location on the edge of town with super easy access to the main thoroughfares to get you anywhere in town quickly! All three bedrooms are located on the main floor along with the open concept living room, dining area, and kitchen that opens up to the deck. The main floor also has a full bathroom and plenty of storage space. Brand new flooring in the living areas and bedrooms - the entire main floor except the bathroom! The basement is unfinished and includes space for storage and the laundry area.

Key facts

• Plenty of storage
• Fenced yard
• Open concept

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• MATURE TREES
• OPEN CONCEPT
• PLENTY OF STORAGE
• BRAND NEW FLOORING
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 13429% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $230k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $223,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.52%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-15,135
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $5,740
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55902

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,482 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,070/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,972

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3960 Willow Heights Dr SW Rochester, MN	3.0	1.0	1734	$1,700	$0.98	43d	1	0.04mi
3714 10th Ave SW Rochester, MN	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,250	$1.26	13d	1	0.53mi
350 Boulder Rd SE Rochester, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1181	$2,594	$2.20	13d	1	0.74mi
4850 Maine Ave SE Rochester, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$3,284	$3.16	13d	28	1.07mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $230,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $230,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $230,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $230,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-04-20
    price $230,000
11. 2026-03-03
    listed $1,700
12. 2025-05-02
    historical $1,650
13. 2025-04-30
    historical
14. 2025-04-17
    listed $1,650
15. 2025-04-04
    price $240,000
16. 2025-03-25
    listed $250,000 Active
17. 2024-03-14
    historical $1,375
18. 2023-11-10
    listed $1,375
19. 2018-12-11
    historical
20. 2018-12-09
    historical
21. 2012-04-12
    soldstatus $105,900
22. 2012-04-02
    soldstatus $105,900
23. 2012-04-02
    soldstatus $105,900
24. 2012-02-01
    listed $112,900
25. 2012-02-01
    listed $112,900
26. 2011-02-16
    listed $115,900
27. 2011-02-16
    listed $115,900
28. 2004-07-02
    soldstatus $120,000
29. 2004-06-25
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,070 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,070 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,070
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,383
• − Management: −$2,383
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $1,228
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$295
• After-tax cash flow: $4,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 26,464
• Household income: $120,611
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 728.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.29%
• Current HPI: 252.3502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+91.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $230,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed for Rent $1,700 APPFOLIO
• 2025-05-02 Rental Removed $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Listed for Rent $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $240,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-25 Listed $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-14 Rental Removed $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-10 Listed for Rent $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2018-12-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $105,900 Public Records
• 2012-04-02 Sold (MLS) $105,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-02 Sold (MLS) $105,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-01 Listed $112,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-01 Listed $112,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-16 Listed $115,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-16 Listed $115,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,070 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.