50 County Road 2612 · Dayton, TX 77535

$115,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · SingleFamily · 214 Days on market

Built 2000 0.28 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to this charming manufactured double-wide home, nestled on three spacious lots with a serene, beach-inspired backyard that overlooks the peaceful Trinity River. Featuring a recently updated metal roof and a high-end AC system, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom retreat offers comfort and tranquility. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or a forever home, this property has it all. Enjoy the lush, green surroundings with full-grown trees providing ample shade, perfect for outdoor entertainment. The included shed offers extra storage for your hobbies and activities. Sitting on over half an acre, this home provides a refreshing escape from the hustle and bustle of city life, inviting yo

Key facts

• Over half an acre
• Extra storage shed
• Full grown trees

Tags

• RECENTLY UPDATED METAL ROOF
• HIGH END AC SYSTEM
• LUSH GREEN SURROUNDINGS
• FULL GROWN TREES
• EXTRA STORAGE SHED
• OVER HALF AN ACRE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has additional parcels

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Asphalt road access
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first level); Block foundation; Metal roof; Subdivision lot
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built in 2000
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level, 15 x 15); Bedroom (First level, 11 x 10); Bedroom (First level, 10 x 12); Bedroom (First level, 10 x 10); Living room (First level, 15 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1234 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.03%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,992
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
483 County Road 6481	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (-7%)	0mo	$275,000	$139	66
4309 Road 66128	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,846 (-13%)	14mo	$369,990	$200	62
55 County Road 6493	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,400 (+13%)	16mo	$465,000	$194	60
221 Bowie Creek Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,827 (-14%)	12mo	$299,000	$164	59
24 Dale St	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-10%)	21mo	$269,900	$141	57
1835 County Road 6763	0.34mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,212 (+4%)	20mo	$275,000	$124	56
1319 County Road 6474	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,310 (+9%)	3mo	$364,500	$158	50
692 County Road 6474	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,218 (+4%)	11mo	$499,999	$225	45
35 County Road 6324	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,359 (+11%)	3mo	$549,000	$233	41
1304 County Road 6479	0.53mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,308 (+8%)	20mo	$355,000	$154	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $25,888
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $79,953
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1234
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $778	-5% $738	+0% $699	+5% $659	+10% $619
Rent	-10% $549	-5% $624	+0% $699	+5% $773	+10% $848
Rate	-1.0pp $757	-0.5pp $728	base $699	+0.5pp $669	+1.0pp $638

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 193 DOM
15. 2025-11-19
    listed $115,000 Active
16. 2025-10-31
    historical
17. 2025-02-26
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,815
• − Management: −$1,815
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $6,967
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,672
• After-tax cash flow: $6,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $115,000 HARMLS