811 Greely Ave · Jacksonville, TX 75766

$13,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1950 6,098 sqft lot $13/sqft · 90% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Start from scratch and turn the dwelling into a three bedroom rent home or first time home. After bringing it back to life, it will make a modestly priced rent home or resale. The house needs a total makeover. It will need a new roof and some new siding over the existing siding. You will want to check out all the plumbing and wiring. The pier and beam foundation will need leveling. The home is located in a very quiet neighborhood. There is a nice backyard with shade trees. There are washer and dryer connections in the kitchen. There are no appliances.

Key facts

• Shade trees
• Nice backyard
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• NICE BACKYARD
• SHADE TREES
• WASHER AND DRYER CONNECTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $13k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $13k).
• Recommended offer: $12k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 61.2% vs local median 2.1% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#452 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jacksonville ISD (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #534 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 286 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $90 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $390 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($12k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $12,220 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 61.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 196.04%
• DSCR: 9.72
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,321
• List price: $13,000
• Delta: -89.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
717 Nacogdoches St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-1%)	5mo	$123,000	$126	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.83×
• Total profit: $35,797
• Equity at exit: $1,938

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.99×
• Total profit: $80,061
• Equity at exit: $1,124

Cash invested: $3,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75766

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$68
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $513/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $147

Max offer price $13,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $602	-5% $598	+0% $595	+5% $591	+10% $587
Rent	-10% $524	-5% $559	+0% $595	+5% $630	+10% $666
Rate	-1.0pp $601	-0.5pp $598	base $595	+0.5pp $591	+1.0pp $588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,250
• Closing costs: $390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 Prather St Jacksonville, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$900	$0.90	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $13,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $13,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $13,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $13,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $13,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $13,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $13,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $13,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $13,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $13,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $13,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $13,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $13,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $13,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $13,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $13,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-04-25
    status Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Start from scratch and turn the dwelling into a three bedroom rent home or first time home. After bringing it back to life, it will make a modestly priced rent home or resale. The house needs a total makeover. It will need a new roof and some new siding over the existing siding. You will want to check out all the plumbing and wiring. The pier and beam foundation will need leveling. The home is located in a very quiet neighborhood. There is a nice backyard with shade trees. There are washer and dryer connections in the kitchen. There are no appliances.

18. 2026-01-10
    status Pending 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Start from scratch and turn the dwelling into a three bedroom rent home or first time home. After bringing it back to life, it will make a modestly priced rent home or resale. The house needs a total makeover. It will need a new roof and some new siding over the existing siding. You will want to check out all the plumbing and wiring. The pier and beam foundation will need leveling. The home is located in a very quiet neighborhood. There is a nice backyard with shade trees. There are washer and dryer connections in the kitchen. There are no appliances.

19. 2025-12-28
    listed $13,000 Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Start from scratch and turn the dwelling into a three bedroom rent home or first time home. After bringing it back to life, it will make a modestly priced rent home or resale. The house needs a total makeover. It will need a new roof and some new siding over the existing siding. You will want to check out all the plumbing and wiring. The pier and beam foundation will need leveling. The home is located in a very quiet neighborhood. There is a nice backyard with shade trees. There are washer and dryer connections in the kitchen. There are no appliances.

20. 1988-09-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $513 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $513 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$728
• − Property taxes: −$513
• − Insurance: −$65
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$378
• Taxable income: $7,387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,773
• After-tax cash flow: $5,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,097
• Composite: 29.09/100
• National rank: #6598
• State rank: #534 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #452
• US rank: #9160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, TX
• City population: 25,988
• Population (ZIP): 25,988

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.95%
• Current HPI: 197.5972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-01-10 Pending — GTAR
• 2025-12-28 Listed $13,000 GTAR
• 1988-09-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $513 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.