15956 Blass Valley Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$279,455

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,750 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Available In June. Fall in love with the Springfield plan in Mavera by Centex Homes—where the heart of the home truly shines. The spacious kitchen features generous counter space, opening to a bright living and dining area made for connection. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and smart storage throughout, this two-story design offers both style and practicality. Located in amenity-rich Mavera, close to parks, trails, and top.

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Spacious kitchen
• Smart storage

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• BRIGHT LIVING AND DINING AREA
• SMART STORAGE
• TWO-STORY DESIGN
• CLOSE TO PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool; Curbs and gutters
• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Attached garage parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); East-facing; 1,850 living area; Has view
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by Centex
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (12x16); Bedroom on second level (9x11); Bedroom on second level (10x10); Bedroom on second level (10x11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; HVAC energy-efficient feature
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower

🏗️ New construction. The $279,455 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,529.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-682/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $262,326 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,529
• List price: $279,455
• Delta: -5.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15018 English Rose Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,850 (0%)	2mo	$276,730	$150	91
15985 Blass Valley Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,850 (0%)	2mo	$287,320	$155	91
15996 Blass Valley Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-4%)	0mo	$279,680	$157	88
15980 Blass Valley Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-4%)	2mo	$274,790	$155	86
15349 Dapple Bluff Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+5%)	2mo	$304,620	$157	80
15385 Dapple Bluff Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+5%)	1mo	$294,910	$152	79
15019 Rustic Moon Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,924 (+4%)	1mo	$314,860	$164	77
15969 Blass Valley Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,036 (+10%)	0mo	$279,540	$137	73
14973 Rustic Moon Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,924 (+4%)	2mo	$289,648	$151	72
15187 Wild Gully Way	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,028 (+10%)	2mo	$355,880	$175	70
14985 Rustic Moon Rd	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,689 (-9%)	1mo	$264,050	$156	67
15632 Boulder Lake Ln	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,028 (+10%)	2mo	$338,180	$167	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-50,790
• Equity at exit: $44,213

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-45,251
• Equity at exit: $25,638

Cash invested: $83,028 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,555
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,448/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,695

Max offer price $288,300

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $46	+0% $-57	+5% $-159	+10% $-262
Rent	-10% $-264	-5% $-160	+0% $-57	+5% $47	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $19	base $-57	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,132
• Closing costs: $8,896
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	45d	1	0.22mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	45d	1	0.59mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	25d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,455 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,455 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,455 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,455 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,455 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,455 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $279,455 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $303,445 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $303,445 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $303,445 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $303,445 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $303,445 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $303,445 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $303,445 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $303,445 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $303,445 Active 430-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,610
• − Property taxes: −$4,448
• − Insurance: −$1,483
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,518
• − Management: −$2,518
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,626
• Taxable loss: −$5,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,364
• After-tax cash flow: $682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious kitchen, modern bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Upgrades such as painting and landscaping can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can increase the home's value and appeal to buyers.
• Resale Flooring — New flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and increase its value.
• Rental HVAC system — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can increase the home's value and appeal to buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring — New flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Rental HVAC system — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $279,455 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $303,445 HARMLS