103 Fourth St · Winooski, VT 05446

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1996 $89/sqft · 10% above area Est $90k · 10% over $519/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained, 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a convenient Colchester location! This inviting property features a spacious living and dining area, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. A large mudroom addition completed in 2019 provides excellent storage and a practical entry space for Vermont living. The home has seen several important updates, including a new roof installed in 2025, a new water heater, and a heating system that is just two years old, offering peace of mind and improved efficiency for the next owner. With thoughtful updates and comfortable living spaces throughout, this home offers a great opportunity to enjoy a move-in-ready property in Colchester close to local amenities.

Key facts

• Colchester location
• New water heater
• Heating system

Tags

• COLCHESTER LOCATION
• LARGE MUDROOM ADDITION
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER
• HEATING SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $667 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.0% in Winooski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#5 in VT, #831 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $99k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.86%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,000
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 10.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Fifth St	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-5%)	2mo	$107,000	$101	83
6 East Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,120 (+0%)	9mo	$155,000	$138	82
116 Seventh St	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-10%)	6mo	$75,000	$75	68
21 Second St	0.07mi	2/2.0	960 (-14%)	5mo	$90,000	$94	66
40 South St	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,066 (-4%)	21mo	$150,000	$141	62
78 South St	0.22mi	2/2.0	952 (-15%)	2mo	$124,500	$131	60
69 East Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0	972 (-13%)	17mo	$68,500	$70	52
67 East Ave	0.27mi	2/1.5	1,248 (+12%)	20mo	$99,000	$79	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $26,730
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $79,207
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05446

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $601/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$519
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $667

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,430

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $519 · $6,228/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $99,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-03-05
    listed $115,000 Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Well-maintained, 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a convenient Colchester location! This inviting property features a spacious living and dining area, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. A large mudroom addition completed in 2019 provides excellent storage and a practical entry space for Vermont living. The home has seen several important updates, including a new roof installed in 2025, a new water heater, and a heating system that is just two years old, offering peace of mind and improved efficiency for the next owner. With thoughtful updates and comfortable living spaces throughout, this home offers a great opportunity to enjoy a move-in-ready property in Colchester close to local amenities.

13. 2018-04-03
    soldstatus $35,000
14. 2017-10-04
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $601 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,241 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$640/yr (+$53/mo · 106.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$601
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − HOA: −$6,228
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $7,169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,721
• After-tax cash flow: $6,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Winooski

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #831

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chittenden County · 110,603 people
• City population: 8,293
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 16,452
• Household income: $97,475
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.02%
• Current HPI: 406.7675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+945.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $115,000 PrimeMLS
• 2018-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $601 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.