706c Dr Martin Luther King Jr Blvd · Bay Minette, AL 36507

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 77 Days on market

Built 1982 Fair condition 9,147 sqft lot $36/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 31% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bed, 2 bath home in Bay Minette is packed with potential. It needs some updates, but with a little work, it could shine again. Buyer to verify allinformation during due diligence. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $715 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.4% vs local median 3.9% in Bay Minette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#179 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.11%
• DSCR: 4.03
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,841
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -72.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $38,275
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.31×
• Total profit: $92,058
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36507

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
503 Freeview Ave Bay Minette, AL	4.0	1.5	1150	$1,500	$1.30	44d	1	0.43mi
305 Mango St Bay Minette, AL	4.0	1.0	1400	$995	$0.71	13d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-04-03
    listed $45,000 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    This 3 bed, 2 bath home in Bay Minette is packed with potential. It needs some updates, but with a little work, it could shine again. Buyer to verify allinformation during due diligence. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-02-08
    status Active
20. 2026-02-05
    status Pending
21. 2025-11-05
    price $50,000
22. 2025-08-25
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $8,363
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,007
• After-tax cash flow: $6,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This 3 bed, 2 bath home in Bay Minette needs moderate updates to its exterior and interior, including painting and flooring replacement, to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior paint — Bright red paint is chipped and worn
• Major interior paint — No visible interior, but likely needs repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior and interior — Bright red paint is chipped and worn
• Both repair and paint roof — Paint appears faded
• Both replace flooring — No visible flooring, likely carpeted or tile
• Both paint interior walls — No visible interior, likely needs repainting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior paint · Bright red paint is chipped and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · No visible interior, but likely needs repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior and interior — Bright red paint is chipped and worn ↑
• Both repair and paint roof — Paint appears faded ↑
• Both replace flooring — No visible flooring, likely carpeted or tile ↑
• Both paint interior walls — No visible interior, likely needs repainting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Bay Minette

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #179
• US rank: #15153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Minette, AL
• Population (ZIP): 20,350

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.62%
• Current HPI: 329.316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-30.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $45,000 BCAR
• 2026-02-08 Relisted — BCAR
• 2026-02-05 Pending — BCAR
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $50,000 BCAR
• 2025-08-25 Listed $65,000 BCAR