38 Avenue G · Hamlin, TX 79520

$124,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1945 10,454 sqft lot $90/sqft · 45% above area Est $86k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover an affordable and newly updated home in Hamlin, Texas. This spacious three-bedroom, two-bathroom home offers comfort and convenience, with one bathroom serving as an ensuite to the primary bedroom. The property features alley access to a workshop and carport, providing great functionality for parking, hobbies, or storage. The home has newer low-maintenance siding and a composition roof installed in 2025. Inside, the sellers have refreshed the space with a neutral interior palette that suits any style. An inviting designated dining room complements the layout, and the living room includes built-in shelves for added charm and storage. Enjoy a move in ready home located in a welcoming small town. This property is a wonderful opportunity for buyers seeking value and modern updates.

Key facts

• Alley access
• Workshop and carport
• Composition roof

Tags

• ALLEY ACCESS
• WORKSHOP AND CARPORT
• LOW-MAINTENANCE SIDING
• COMPOSITION ROOF
• DESIGNATED DINING ROOM
• BUILT-IN SHELVES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($239/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#747 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hamlin ISD (rural): math 26% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #666 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($861 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Jones County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,157
• List price: $124,500
• Delta: 44.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Avenue G	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	1mo	$124,500	$90	99
136 NW Avenue F	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+1%)	3mo	$109,000	$78	86
444 NW Avenue E E	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,322 (-5%)	5mo	$65,000	$49	70
610 NW 7th St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-2%)	13mo	$115,000	$85	64
735 NW F Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-8%)	2mo	$70,000	$55	63
1017 2nd St	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,576 (+14%)	2mo	$164,900	$105	61
51 Avenue A	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-5%)	1mo	$42,999	$33	58
1031 W Lake Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,544 (+11%)	24mo	$135,000	$87	48
243 5th St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	21mo	$72,500	$46	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $33,024
• Equity at exit: $73,740

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $97,556
• Equity at exit: $129,982

Cash invested: $34,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79520

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$653
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,797/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,187

Max offer price $124,500

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,125
• Closing costs: $3,735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 803-char remark

   Show marketing remark (803 chars)

   Discover an affordable and newly updated home in Hamlin, Texas. This spacious three-bedroom, two-bathroom home offers comfort and convenience, with one bathroom serving as an ensuite to the primary bedroom. The property features alley access to a workshop and carport, providing great functionality for parking, hobbies, or storage. The home has newer low-maintenance siding and a composition roof installed in 2025. Inside, the sellers have refreshed the space with a neutral interior palette that suits any style. An inviting designated dining room complements the layout, and the living room includes built-in shelves for added charm and storage. Enjoy a move in ready home located in a welcoming small town. This property is a wonderful opportunity for buyers seeking value and modern updates.

2. 2025-11-25
   listed $124,500 Active 803-char remark

   Show marketing remark (803 chars)

   Discover an affordable and newly updated home in Hamlin, Texas. This spacious three-bedroom, two-bathroom home offers comfort and convenience, with one bathroom serving as an ensuite to the primary bedroom. The property features alley access to a workshop and carport, providing great functionality for parking, hobbies, or storage. The home has newer low-maintenance siding and a composition roof installed in 2025. Inside, the sellers have refreshed the space with a neutral interior palette that suits any style. An inviting designated dining room complements the layout, and the living room includes built-in shelves for added charm and storage. Enjoy a move in ready home located in a welcoming small town. This property is a wonderful opportunity for buyers seeking value and modern updates.

3. 1998-06-19
   soldstatus
4. 1990-03-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,797 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,797 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,974
• − Property taxes: −$2,797
• − Insurance: −$622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,164
• − Management: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$3,622
• Taxable loss: −$1,795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$431
• After-tax cash flow: $669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822260
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,729
• Composite: 24.06/100
• National rank: #7763
• State rank: #666 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hamlin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #747
• US rank: #13794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hamlin, TX
• City population: 2,576
• Population (ZIP): 2,576

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,845 people
• By 2030: 20,213 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 21,446 · +8.1%
• By 2050: 22,499 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 23,272 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 20,420 · +2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.2) · D 13.1% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -46.1pp · 2024: -73.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.2 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+65.4 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+46.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.42%
• Current HPI: 123.4254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $124,500 NTREIS
• 1998-06-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,797 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.